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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:32 pm 
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Right now, the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.

I can't remember a year this century when there wasn't a named storm before this. It's the new normal. This year it's Alberto.

The National Hurricane Center is in full rock and roll, and they've been tasking the aircraft reconnaissance, though today's flight is cancelled because Alberto is near or over land. In other words, the hurricane season has once again been started early out of necessity. Just like every year.

The June 1 date is obsolete.

The East Pacific season starts May 1, and there's usually a named storm there in May. I think May 15 would work for the Atlantic, though May 1 is always a possibility to anticipate the future.

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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 2:06 pm 
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Yeah, it's been an awesome Memorial Day Beach weekend here. :|

Image

Last week we had some kind of "subtropical system" off the coast as well ... that one didn't formulate enough to get a name.

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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 4:24 pm 
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Why not? In California, our fire season has now changed to year-round so why shouldn't we expect hurricane season to be changing too.

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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 6:03 pm 
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Why not? In California, our fire season has now changed to year-round so why shouldn't we expect hurricane season to be changing too.

all across the west and SW its fire season all year now.

carl sagan Years ago on weather/changing climate said..'whatever you get for weather you will get more of'.

id say he was spot on.

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PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 8:34 pm 
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If we see it happen three years in a row we should start the Atlantic hurricane season in May, or the beginning of June. :|

I know it starts June 1st now. Seeing one storm come 4 or 5 days early isn't much. Maybe move it ahead one week after we see it three years in a row.

Climate change. Expect changes.


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PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 1:40 pm 
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First named storms in the Atlantic:

2015: Ana (May 8)
2016: Alex (January 13)
2017: Arlene (April 21)
2018: Alberto (May 25)

I think we have a trend.

Rain is right: climate change makes the weather a bit hotter, but mostly it makes whatever you have where you are do it bigger and more often. It's chaos math. You put more energy into a system, it does the same thing only more, unless it gets so far out of equilibrium that it self-organizes as something new. (The possible reversal of the Gulf Stream, which would freeze Europe over, comes to mind.)

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