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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:35 pm 
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No, that's foil hats. Willard's spray-on tan won't do much for X-rays and energetic protons. Given how badly it was blended ("Avoid my eyes, now!"), it won't even do much for the Latin@ vote.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:20 pm 
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Region 1577 had some kind of eruption (they're not calling it a flare). Large full-halo CME was emitted directly at Earth. Proton flux increased briefly, then dropped. CME should get here sometime tomorrow, with 50% chance of strong storming in auroral latitudes. Aurora might be strong enough to see despite the full moon.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 12:15 am 
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We're rockin!

Still not a solar flare, though there are class C pretty well continously at the moment. A bow wave and a CME hit right together and we're K=7 and ground currents in Norway. The K took a huge jump about as fast as I've ever seen it do same. We be doin' it folks!

Notice that we're still here, and the effects in this latitude have been imperceptible.

Most noteworthy was that the dreaded Bz swung way, way south, causing the space weather people to panic and say G3 and S3 conditions were possible with "extreme" magnetic storming. You will notice that Bz is currently a little north, and while G3 continues, it ain't no big thang. The scale goes to G5. Wake me up when and if it gets that high. I love looking for aurora in L.A.. I suspect that I will sleep well, however.

The radio conditions were actually at a solar peak level today. Good solid F2 region propagation up to at least 35 MHz to the US from Europe and South America, plus the notorious transcontinental skip that caused such a migration off VHF low band. The CHP should have been audible worldwide. Here I was hearing a little fire department in a little county somewhere in East Pennsylvania. I do not live in Pennsylvania.

The geek stuff:

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 01 0310 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 September follow.
Solar flux 136 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 01 October was 7.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Sep 30 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar
x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24
hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar
disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk
remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New
Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the
time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for
the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is
expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster,
located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from
27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft,
indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15
nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached
Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this
initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The
total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of
negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind
speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods
possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME
continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02
October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (03 October).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected.

(as of Sunday, September 30, 2012 8:10:03 PM)

BTW tell that guy with the hardware store and the KMA banner: Solar flares don't blow out your power and you can stay open (GOV)

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:32 pm 
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We went back to G0 almost as fast as we got out of it, just whump and K=3. Spaceweather has a photo of nice purple aurora in California.

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"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 3:05 pm 
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Now?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:36 pm 
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K=2, Bz is north, all parameters are still calming down. There are "interesting" regions on the sun, but none are visible from earth. Were you on Venus, you would be in for interesting times, as that planet has no protective magnetic field. (Spaceweather.com)

I actually watched a TV show yesterday about what happened to Hydro Quebec in the late 1980s. Interestingly, the issue was ground currents, not Faraday effect from magnetic field motions. The equipment read it as ground faults and started tripping stations off, then it rippled out and the lights went off in a whole lot of places. There was no actual damage to equipment.

The famous blown transformer was somewhere else. They show the picture of this well toasted mess with every solar flare article. It was definitely solar in cause, and very very expensive. The flare that did it was an X15/extra bright. The best this cycle has done so far is X6.9.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:17 pm 
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More all time aurora. Absolutely best in a generation. Seen in darker parts of Colorado. We spiked somewhere around G2, now back down.

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"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:37 pm 
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On and off auroral storming continues. Real show in dark places up north and down south, when it happens. Flaring should pick up as a new and extremely active region rotates onto our visible disk. Space weather people say to expect class M. (The category under X, and way weaker.)

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:59 am 
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What's nice about this solar cycle is that all the sunspots develop enough to cause the good stuff (aurora or better radio propagation, though usually not both at once). However, right when they look like they can do the bad stuff (X class flares with high-speed mass ejection), they poo out.

We have another poo.

There's a coronal hole, though, so aurora should stay active with some moderate storming maybe. No biggie. I find it rather fun, but then I'm strange.

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:18 am 
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Region 1589 is magnetically complex and keeping it interesting, though not interesting enough. I'd worry more about republicans than flares right now.

We're still G1, Kp is currently 5 (storm threshold), the Bz magnetic vector is still south, and aurora watchers remain in luck. Far as flares go, though, we'll be lucky to see a class M. No big thang, that.

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:33 am 
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Earth facing side of the sun remains relatively stable. Our friendly neighborhood star is doing some serious business, but it's been all on the other side for several weeks now.

There's a song where a guy with a huge short wave radio tells his friends he can hear Jupiter, but all they hear is static. (Hope that wasn't me. I know a lot of musicians.) This, of course, is true. It sounds exactly like static because that's what it is. However it's static on frequencies where the earth's atmosphere doesn't usually make that much, and for various reasons it's clearly extra-terrestrial.

Anyway, this guy has an even more huge short wave radio and a radio telescope type antenna array, and he got even louder static. Go to www.spaceweather.com and scroll down to RADIO STORM ON JUPITER.

If he says it's Jovian, it's Jovian.

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:17 am 
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Chance of flares is up with active region 1598 rotating into earth view and already producing an M9.0 which disrupted radio propagation.

---

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (21 October). An increase to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected for days 2 and 3 (22-23 October) due to
the effects of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:57 am 
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Region 1598, which wasn't supposed to produce X-class flares, produced an X-class flare last night (around 0300 UTC). X1.9, with radio burst, but without geoeffective CME. This region is still rotating towards the middle of the solar disk, and things may or may not become more interesting as this happens. Certainly there's the most potential for fun and games in quite some time, but that and $4.75 will fix you right up at Starbuck's.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:07 am 
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Region 1598 should now be geoeffective, and the solar radio flux has jumped to a healthy 142 after being in the anemic 110's all summer. No new flares since yesterday's X1.9.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:39 am 
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Region 1598 has done the standard Cycle 24 poo out. Solar activity returns to low.

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:38 pm 
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Region 1611 is flaring actively with the largest being a class M, but it's not geoeffective (yet).

Much more stable Region 1608 managed to produce a filament eruption this morning (US time), and the accompanying CME will reach the Earth. No heavy fireworks are expected.

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--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:12 am 
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Couldn't let a K=6 go by without at least a mention in passing. The dreaded Bz is as far south as I've ever seen it. Well, we ARE at G2 moderate storm level and the aurora is said to be kicking butt though I don't hear it on the radio down here. Mostly the HF conditions are way above normal, with obscure Russian Navy radio beacons blasting halfway around the world.

Lots of flares but they're all little.

I love solar peaks, even weenie ones.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:53 am 
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Assumptions:

The effects of solar flares on the Winter Solstice in the Northern US vs Central America yields different effects.

The immediate threshold of life/death is based on ambient conditions.

Those most able to migrate have an increased likelihood of short term survival if they receive accurate information and have enough basics and sufficient survival skills.

Long term survival may not be able to rely on traditional hunter/gatherer paradigms as flora and fauna cannot benefit from "accurate information".


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:08 pm 
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The issue is that solar flares are a minor blip in a major change caused by the earth's warming climate. Think of a tsunami and then a dam breaks and throws some more water into it. Given the bazillion gallons of water already flowing over everything, another foot or two might not make much difference.

Yes the solstice is obviously different in lower latitudes and these may become even less inhabitable than now but I don't see a huge change here. It seems to me that the equinoxes will have the most increase in dangerous phenomena, as we're already seeing with tornadoes in the spring and noreasters in the fall.

The sun is having a declining effect on all this due to a periodic oscillation which is complicated but which produces alternating very active and very quiet periods. Most of the documented bad effects of solar flares came in an active period which peaked in 1958, now all statistics show a quiet period coming up. This does not make flares impossible, but it makes the large ones less common. It's just not a major reason to opt for survivalism. There are too many other reasons for that choice to really take solar flares very seriously except as that slight extra water in the tsunami.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:38 pm 
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I should explain better:

The "11-year sunspot cycle" is based on a magnetic reversal of the entire sun.

It is a half cycle, composed of a positive and negative peak, or in this case a "north" and "south" peak, so a full cycle is 22 years.

The zero axis in this case is a quiet sun condition. The peaks are determined statistically from observations, and represent the 11-year highs in the full 22-year magnetic oscillation.

"Sunspots" are a manifestation of deeper storm like processes. These come and go with the cycle. More sunspots mean more turbulent activity in the sun.

The observations of "sunspots" go back several centuries. There is a long data series, which is not always consistent in measurement standards and representation of the data, but which is good enough to allow long term statistics.

We see a long term, periodic, variation in the number of sunspots. Consider it a cycle of cycles, alternating series of increasing and decreasing peaks with just enough periodicity to be considered a valid statistical conclusion from the data. There have been two periods at the low part of this supercyle in which few or no sunspots were observed.

One, the Maunder Minimum, lasted the better part of a century, and had a very long stretch with no observed sunspots at all. It coincides with a period of cold climate in Europe. Another more recent one, the Dalton Minimum, had a delayed low sunspot peak followed by several peaks which barely qualified as such. Combined with some historic volcanic eruptions, this produced the notorious "year without a summer" when crops failed and snow fell in the Midwest in summer months.

Statistically, the current situation resembles the beginning of the Dalton Minimum.

Everything else is conjecture but the current bets are that "sunspots" just aren't going to be that big a deal for probably the rest of our lives.

This will NOT stop global warming, but it might slow the full onset, so that the situation is only 98% dire instead of 100% dire. Any other conclusions are politically motivated, and the Internet is full of supposedly reputable scientists who have succumbed to personal demons on this one.

That's all.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:10 pm 
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Truly awesome aurora continues, though in the more traditional higher latitudes.

Active Region #1618 is worth watching, if for no other reason than it's huge, very impressive, and yes, potentially geoeffective. Nice classic magnetically complex sunspot group ~10 Earths across.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:51 pm 
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Region 1618 produced an M3.5 flare around 1500 UTC (10 AM Eastern) this morning. There was undoubtedly a weak CME. This follows a couple of flares in the M1.6 range earlier. The region remains highly geoeffective (science speak for pointed right at us) for another couple of days.

These are not consequential for disruption of our technology, but could make for continued weak magnetic storming and aurora in the usual places. Solar radio flux hangs in at 141, a good number for radio propagation.

Foil hats will not be required.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:04 pm 
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WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 21 2207 UTC
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 22: None (Below G1) Nov 23: G2 (Moderate) Nov 24: G1 (Minor)

This is for a series of geoeffective CMEs, though the exact effect will range from inconsequential to something of interest mostly to scientists and operators of some infrastructure that might encounter ground currents or Faraday effect in the higher latitudes.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:17 pm 
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Quote:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/2116Z from Region 1618 (N08W13). Although this region retains weak
beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced
intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remain
fairly stable. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.


In clear English:

The sun calmed down, much to the chagrin of those of us who love high solar fluxes/ SSNs and low K indices for fall radio propagation purposes.

Region 1618 ate too much turkey.

The others are wusses.

No foil hat.

_________________
"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:50 pm 
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Sun still very very wussy on the earth facing side. Something made a BIG ASS CME yesterday, but pointed at someone else's planet.

Statistically, this wussy little cycle looks a whole lot like the one that started the Dalton Minimum. I realize this means absolutely nothing beyond educated supposition until 22 years of data happen. But even so, it really does.

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"Words are the new bullets, satellites the new artillery"
--"Winning CNN Wars," Army War College

"One bomb was shown on TV, and the American people bought that war. War is show business."
--"Wag the Dog"


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