...and it's not now.
A couple of warnings for K index of 5 have come over the wires, but the one in Boulder which is relevant to the US is actually very low at present and hasn't gotten above 2 all day.
If you live in Canada, and it's clear, and you're far enough north, you might get some good aurora out of this.
The K index measures fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field. It's updated every 3 hours. The fluctuations are good indicators of aurora and movement in the magnetosphere which can cause Faraday-effect currents in long power lines and pipelines. (The fabled "magnetic storm.")
What we are having is a fairly nice proton storm. This is from hydrogen nuclei (ionized hydrogen) blown off in coronal mass ejections, so it's not too far out there to expect a CME to hit Earth. As CMEs go, though, it's pretty weenie.
This whole solar cycle is pretty weenie. There are various theories for why. All of them predict much lower sunspot activity for the next 20-40 years.
This is important because if sunspots drop off and global warming doesn't start back down, we know it's anthropogenic. We know that anyway, but some people with degrees in science and resulting clout as "experts" have advanced the theory that sunspots, which peaked in 1958, CAUSED global warming. We shall see about THAT. In science, if observation doesn't bear out your mathematical predictions, you have to abandon them. Of course, politics is quite a bit less rigorous.
So what's a serious solar flare?
Not this one.
Flares are rated kind of like earthquakes, by X-ray emission in powers of 10. C, M, and X. We have two very large and photogenic sunspot groups right now, regions #1515 and #1520. #1515 rotated out of view (the sun rotates every 28 days, which is extremely fast for such a large body). #1520 is pretty well pointed right at the earth, but even so, the recent 'extreme flare' wasn't very extreme. It was measured at X1.4. That's not bad for this cycle, but as flares go, it doesn't even crack the top 100.
The ones that have had the effects the media are so on about have had the following characteristics:
1. Magnitude X10 or above, the record being estimated X28, fortunately not aimed at Earth.
2. Geoeffective position, in the middle of the solar disk.
3. Coronal mass ejection, mostly protons of various energies. X-ray has no mass, though it too has had its effects on satellites, and you certainly don't want astronauts out in it. Many very expensive satellites have been damaged this way, though now they are getting better at hardening them. But it's the CME that moves the Earth's magnetosphere around, causing shifts in orbits and excessive arcing, and ultimately deflecting charged particles to the poles, exciting the lower atmosphere - aurora.
4. Broadband radio emissions, indicating a high energy phenomenon. This does not cause the infamous "radio blackout" - that's ultra violet and X-ray. It does cause some interesting and measurable noise on all radio frequencies.
We should have one very large flare in this cycle, wussy as it is. You'll know because even if something weird doesn't get into the news, I'll tell you.
_________________ "Our democratic institutions... seem to have been upended by frat-boy billionaires from California," remarked Canadian politician Charlie Angus. (BBC, 11/27/18)
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