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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:20 pm 
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3,206 absentee votes left to count tomorrow in red counties (plus perhaps two red precincts).

Connor Lamb has an 847 vote lead.

By my late night math, Saccone needs 2026(63.%) of the 3206 outstanding votes (precincts above not withstanding). The GOP has not gotten above 57% in either red district, and only 52% in one.

This is an amazing result (even if I'm wrong). My understanding is the grassroots outraised the GOP 4:1 in district. The DCCC was investing "modestly" in a district it publicly said there was no growing or dormant Democratic movement. Democrats out performed the GOP from 2016 in all but 3 precincts. The GOP cannot hide from this wave. The Democrats need to keep races focused locally and keep the entire base energized. If we do that, no Republican outside the deep South and barren West will be safe.

I think we may also be seeing the beginning of a new era in American politics. We saw this Grassroots decentralized victory in the teachers march. Even without a union, people can now organize. Even without the support of a national party, local democratic movements can still thrive.

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Last edited by J_dogg82 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:21 pm 
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Update, 1,195 more votes to be counted tonight.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:30 pm 
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I've been watching that myself and doing the math too. I'm using the NY Times, who are you using for your source?

I predicted he'd win about forty minuets ago, so we both think he's going to win.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:40 pm 
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I've been watching that myself and doing the math too. I'm using the NY Times, who are you using for your source?

I predicted he'd win about forty minuets ago, so we both think he's going to win.

I've been watching Fox and CNN. Mostly CNN. Fox keeps bringing up Hillary, which Jason and I are finding hilarious.

NYT has been a bit behind. Not sure they have been reporting the absentees. CNN has been working on them all night. Washington changed its mind and decided to count their absentees tonight. They are expecting it to take about two and a half more hours now to bring in those 1100 ballets I spoke about above.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:42 pm 
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I believe both of the remaining counties are going to count their absentee ballots tonight now, and we should have results tonight.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:46 pm 
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CNN identified 22 districts currently in Republican control that closely resemble this District demographically. They predict that all 22 of those districts would be lost at this point if the results were similar in November.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:54 pm 
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I've been watching Fox and CNN. Mostly CNN. Fox keeps bringing up Hillary, which Jason and I are finding hilarious.

NYT has been a bit behind. Not sure they have been reporting the absentees. CNN has been working on them all night. Washington changed its mind and decided to count their absentees tonight. They are expecting it to take about two and a half more hours now to bring in those 1100 ballets I spoke about above.


There was an unexplained thing about a half hour ago at the Times. The Times found a bunch of votes, a favorable sudden shift. It was down to there being only two precincts to go and Lamb was only leading by about 95 votes. After that shift there were still those two precincts to go and Lamb suddenly lead by 0.4 percentage points, or 847 votes.

Maybe that's the absentee ballots having been counted and then some. To have increased Lamb's lead by about 750 votes that would take a lot of ballots with the margins they have been tending to run tonight.

It could also have been a mistake being corrected in the Times news room.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:09 am 
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There was an unexplained thing about a half hour ago at the Times. The Times found a bunch of votes, a favorable sudden shift. It was down to there being only two precincts to go and Lamb was only leading by about 95 votes. After that shift there were still those two precincts to go and Lamb suddenly lead by 0.4 percentage points, or 847 votes.

Maybe that's the absentee ballots having been counted and then some. To have increased Lamb's lead by about 750 votes that would take a lot of ballots with the margins they have been tending to run tonight.

It could also have been a mistake being corrected in the Times news room.

I know exactly the moment that you were talking about, but that was when the absentee ballots came in from the blue County. They wouldn't have been included on the NYT precinct map.

I believe you one about 1900 out of 2700 absentee ballots.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:44 am 
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Lamb leads by 579 votes with 2211 votes left to count. GOP needs 1585 of those, or 71 percent. Saccone only won 53% of the live vote, and may well lose the absentee vote.

Welcome, Rep. Lamb!

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:52 am 
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I know exactly the moment that you were talking about, but that was when the absentee ballots came in from the blue County. They wouldn't have been included on the NYT precinct map.

I believe you one about 1900 out of 2700 absentee ballots.


The Times is now reporting, "Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 579 votes, over Rick Saccone with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting."

The red counties have not been showing that a large a margin. Suppose on the high side of that it was 20%, it would take about 2,900 absentee ballots to erase Lamb's 579 vote lead.


I think it's safe to assume for now that Lamb has won. :)


I'm sure glad it's close enough that some idiot on the Republican side will call for a recount and get it. As I understand it any citizen in that state can request that. That will give this story plenty of hang time in the news going on for weeks.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:56 am 
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Lamb has declared victory. There are still absentee ballots and some provisional and military ballots to be counted but that may not be enough for Saccone to overcome Lamb. Undoubtedly, there will be a recount.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:45 am 
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:arrow: I was enjoying watching MSNBC's Steve Kornacki at "the board" doing the numbers. The camera has been on him all night in split screen. He looks like he's doing a powerpoint presentation, and I guess maybe he is~ I don't know what if anything the Dems can learn from this besides the fact that there are countless districts around the country like this one, and countless more that aren't. One thing I do know is that this races should be localized and not nationalized and shouldn't be referendums on Donald Trump, or Nancy Pelosi, Pres. Obama or Speaker Ryan. I also understand that these Democratic candidates shouldn't count on nor trust the DCCC, they are only out for themselves and not the candidate, the voters and certainly not the best interest of the Party~

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:51 am 
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It's so encouraging after we have over a year to witness exactly what kind of subhuman prick Donald Trump is, and how the GOP is chock-full of good little nazis who have turned the party over to him...how we rejoice that this district in Pennsylvania is only half full of assholes.

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Last edited by Ike Bana on Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:31 am 
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It's so encouraging after we have over a year to witness exactly what kind of subhuman prick Donald Trump is, and how the GOP is chock-full of good little nazis...how we rejoice that this district in Pennsylvania is only half full of assholes.


Ike, every human being on this Earth has an asshole.

I've been to that part of Pennsylvania, the people who live there are pretty nice overall. I kind of liked the place. Pennsylvania is where my moms family started out after they got off of the boat 16 or 17 generations ago.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:47 am 
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The number Absentee/Provisional Ballot remaining to be counted will not shift the numbers in favor of the Republican in the race.

CD18 went for 45 with over 20% of the vote, this is monumental loss for the Republicans. This district should never have been a contest if you look at the voting base. This is a Republican District and has been a Republican District for years. Democrats never really bothered to put up a candidate in most years.

This election extends the Democrats winnning streak in Special Elections held since the election of 45. Republicans have to take a good hard look at following 45 off the cliff...so far it aint working.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:01 pm 
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The Times is now reporting, "Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 579 votes, over Rick Saccone with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting."

The red counties have not been showing that a large a margin. Suppose on the high side of that it was 20%, it would take about 2,900 absentee ballots to erase Lamb's 579 vote lead.


I think it's safe to assume for now that Lamb has won. :)


I'm sure glad it's close enough that some idiot on the Republican side will call for a recount and get it. As I understand it any citizen in that state can request that. That will give this story plenty of hang time in the news going on for weeks.

I'm always happy when the GOP spends its money paying low-income civil servants to verify that a Democrat won.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:04 pm 
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Democrat Carter Lamb maintains his lead in Pa. CD18.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pa-18 ... 80314.html.

With all precincts fully reporting and Absentee Ballots counted, Lamb maintains a 627-Vote lead over Repblican Saccone.

Current Vote Totals Are:

Lamb - Democrat - 113,813 - 49.8%.

Saccone - Republican - 113,186 - 49.6%.

Miller - Libertarian - 1,379 - 0.6%

Chances of numbers shifting from Lamb to Saccone are minimal at best.

Republicans are looking to impound some of the voting machnes and are also saying that some voters were told to go to the wrong Polling Station.

Nor are Republicans ruling the possibility of a Recount, which may or may run in their favor.

NBC has called the election and is calling Lamb the apparent winner.

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Glenfs posted about the Left's War On Women. Glenfs posted this after the Cosby Verdict "Gloria Allred is a media hound and an asshole. The most dangerous place to be is inbetween her and a microphone or camera". 04/27/2018.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:21 pm 
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Ike, every human being on this Earth has an asshole.

If you're trying to suggest that having an asshole is at all related to being an asshole...youre worse off than I thought.

I've been to that part of Pennsylvania, the people who live there are pretty nice overall. I kind of liked the place. Pennsylvania is where my moms family started out after they got off of the boat 16 or 17 generations ago.


We are regular visitors to southwest Pennsylvania. The Laurel Highlands area in particular. There are many fine and friendly people there...one of the best little B&B's we have stayed at anywhere in the country. The people who own and run the place were cordial and friendly. And if they're among the 60% of PA-18 voters who chose Trump...they're assholes.

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Last edited by Ike Bana on Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:45 pm 
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So now the cons are desperately claiming Democrats are really Republicans? :rw)


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:50 pm 
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The lady doth protest too much.

No automatic recount in PA special elections. I suppose the Republicans could pay for a recount. I don't see a lot of hope for them there. They'll have to get their plants in the judiciary to pull something out of thin air a la bush v. Gore.

Anyway I doubt we're done hearing about this election. Not only because it's not over, but also because it challenges so many assumptions about US politics that have worked for a couple of generations now.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:02 pm 
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The lady doth protest too much.

No automatic recount in PA special elections. I suppose the Republicans could pay for a recount. I don't see a lot of hope for them there. They'll have to get their plants in the judiciary to pull something out of thin air a la bush v. Gore.

Anyway I doubt we're done hearing about this election. Not only because it's not over, but also because it challenges so many assumptions about US politics that have worked for a couple of generations now.

For there to be a recount, you'd need three republicans in each precinct to sign a petition requesting a recount of the vote within five days after the county complete its counting of the ballots. That's not a high bar to reach and I think they'll get a recount but Lamb will still win.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:05 pm 
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When Trump attended the Saccne rally a couple of days, he called Connor Lamb "Lamb the Sham." Now that the people have spoken and Lamb has won we can tell Trump:

WHAM, BAM, THANK YOU LAMB!

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:04 pm 
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The lady doth protest too much.

No automatic recount in PA special elections. I suppose the Republicans could pay for a recount. I don't see a lot of hope for them there. They'll have to get their plants in the judiciary to pull something out of thin air a la bush v. Gore.

Anyway I doubt we're done hearing about this election. Not only because it's not over, but also because it challenges so many assumptions about US politics that have worked for a couple of generations now.


Are the Republicans willing to put good money after bad is the question. PA recounts are done only if the Candidate requests it and then only if the Candidate or the Party pony up the bucks. A recount will not shift the numbers any real dramatic fashion. With the count this close there is very little if chance the Republicans will pull out a win.

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Glenfs posted about the Left's War On Women. Glenfs posted this after the Cosby Verdict "Gloria Allred is a media hound and an asshole. The most dangerous place to be is inbetween her and a microphone or camera". 04/27/2018.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:51 pm 
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Should be noted: NYT, NBC News, and several outlets are officially calling the race for Conor Lamb.

Congratulations, no more silence from this lamb. :mrgreen:

BTW, for you "my vote doesn't matter" folks out there, looks like Lamb won by less than 700 votes.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:41 pm 
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NYT Calls Election in PA Election

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ction.html.

RePugs Lost.

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Glenfs posted about the Left's War On Women. Glenfs posted this after the Cosby Verdict "Gloria Allred is a media hound and an asshole. The most dangerous place to be is inbetween her and a microphone or camera". 04/27/2018.


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