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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:31 pm 
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...reliably conservative Rassmussen (Trump's go-to poll) has Trump at 39% approval and a -22 spread. Only Reuters has a bigger negative spread. No major poll has Trump with a higher disapproval number than Rassmussen's 61%.

RCP - Trump Job Approval

The poll average graph of approval/disapproval is downright stunning.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:50 pm 
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maybe its the troll in the WH contacting all the important suckups with important suckup
info that is "fake".

...a "prankster"....in the WH.


8-)

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:52 pm 
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speaking of....btw, where'd that o-ma-rosa woman-thing go....wasnt she "on the inside"...
nevah hear nuthin about hahself no more.

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Who are these...flag-sucking halfwits fleeced fooled by stupid little rich kids They speak for all that is cruel stupid
They are racists hate mongers I piss down the throats of these Nazis Im too old to worry whether they like it Fuck them.
HST.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:40 pm 
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As of yesterday and today, with the 8 most recent polls, Trumps support statically budged. For the last two months his support did a random walk which was nothing but statistical noise. His support at 538 had been stable with the noise dampened out at 38.5% approve to 55.5% disapprove. That's a spread of 17% and 6% sitting on the fence.

But it's moved now, and the polls which moved it are cross section of polling outfits which include all of the ones which have been giving him his best numbers. Right now at 538 his average is 37.8% approve to 56.7% disapprove. That'a spread of 18.9% with 5.5% sitting on the fence.

Those two months of the numbers being stable means that the slope regressions factors worked themselves out of the averaging line slope equation. That's unlike the new numbers, because regression is ballasting those numbers significantly resisting their free movement.

Now is a time when it's both appropriate to, and there are sufficient number of new polls, to reasonably do a snapshot calculation of both the average and of the mean. The snapshot average is 36.8% approve, and 58.3% disapprove. The snapshot mean is 36.5% approve and 58.5% disapprove.

The snapshot mean is most like the two months of stable numbers from and apples to apples standpoint so I will use the mean to make a comparison.

The snapshot mean is 36.5% approve and 58.5% disapprove. A spread of 22% with 5% sitting on the fence. compare that with a spread of 17%, and 6% sitting on the fence.

So there has been a sudden movement of 5% of the spread, and a 1% reduction of people offering no opinion in the last two days. His loyal unbudgeable support has diminished from 38.5% to 36.5% a movement of 2%.

Two percent of his supporters he most likely will never see again. His kind are the loyal kind up until they become angered and are gone, whatever it was that caused them to leave they are not likely to forget or to forgive.

Two more shifts like that which we saw on the last two days, and Trump's numbers will be down in the Nixon impeachment, he resigned range.


All in all It's been a grand day. :D

Where will the numbers be in a week? In a month? :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:37 pm 
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This morning the plunge continues. The 538 graph shows his average is 37.0% approve to 57.5% disapprove. That'a spread of 20.5% with 5.5% sitting on the fence.

There are only four new polls so far this morning, that is an insufficient number to calculate and use a mean, instead I will calculate a snapshot average

Today's snapshot approval is 35.5%, disapproval is 59.5%. That's a spread of 24%, with 5% sitting on the fence.

To keep it apples to apples I'll use yesterday's snapshot average numbers not the mean. Overnight that is a shift from 36.8% to 35.5% approve, and 58.3% to 59.5% disapprove. Indicating a loss of 1.3% support and a gain of 1.2% disapproval. The spread increased by 2.5%.

The best poll this morning was Quinnipiac University, an A rated poll who's 538 adjusted numbers were 35% and 60%. (Their raw numbers were 33% and 61%.)


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:39 pm 
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My point was that Rassmussen, the right winjob's favorite poll, has him lower than any poll save Reuters.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:33 pm 
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:arrow: I don't think Trump favorability rating has gone above 40% since the inaugural?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:50 pm 
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:arrow: I don't think Trump favorability rating has gone above 40% since the inaugural?


It's a disturbingly high number. 36% is a disturbingly high number. WTF is wrong with this country? It's without a doubt the most fucked up country of all the first world nations.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:05 pm 
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My point was that Rasmussen, the right winjob's favorite poll, has him lower than any poll save Reuters.


It's good point.

And the day you made it it was the lowest save Reuters at RCP. Today Quinapack has Trump's approval at 33%.

RCP is a Republican outfit which ignores some polls all the time but they never forget to include Rasmussen's. There was a time when RCP was a political gambling front selling "contracts," In other words they were "bookies." And Rasmussen was the polling outfit aligned with them for setting the odds. That was back in 2006 and 2008.

For Rasmussen to set his number that low in their fake random walk which disguises the fact that they are fake is surprising. Rasmussen realizes that fake polling outfits get caught cheating by having their numbers not bounce around.

I see that as an indication that Trump has not in some way pleased Rasmussen.



Rasmussen does something which bothers me even more than their fake random walk, they depress the center. They call thousands of people and somehow all of them they talk to either like Trump or dislike him. All of them. Everyone else speaks to a routine measured 4 to 8 percent of people who don't have an opinion about Trump, and says so.

That would inflate both the approve and disapprove numbers if it were done equally, but in Rasmussen's way of doing it they are able to hide that fact that they almost always pump Trump's approve number up by 4 to 5 percent, while only 1 or 2 percent are added to his disapproval number.

Another thing Rasmussen does is they only talk to likely voters, when I've got to say I have no idea how they could possibly know who are likely voters. Sometimes pollers can ask question and kind of know, but now is not one of those times. I can't think of anything al poller could do which would resolve that.



So I think Rasmussen must be personally very upset with Trump. Otherwise Rasmussen wouldn't make up numbers which don't pat Trump on the rump to say "you're so great, you're doing fine" with all of the available margin of wiggle room Rasmussen has to work with and still get his numbers published.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:13 pm 
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:arrow: I don't think Trump favorability rating has gone above 40% since the inaugural?


On day 74 his average approval rating went two tenths of a percent below 40%. But that was just for one day until day 116 when his approval number went below 40% and has never risen above it since. On day 155 he almost got back up to 40% but then his number fell again.

We're at day 195 now. It feels like it's been a year.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:02 pm 
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On day 74 his average approval rating went two tenths of a percent below 40%. But that was just for one day until day 116 when his approval number went below 40% and has never risen above it since. On day 155 he almost got back up to 40% but then his number fell again.

We're at day 195 now. It feels like it's been a year.


:arrow: Well, if his approval rating according to Quinnipiac is at 33% right now, it would have to be some really marvelous, crazy thing that would see it go to 40%. But stranger things have happened~ :brow:

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:25 pm 
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:arrow: Well, if his approval rating according to Quinnipiac is at 33% right now, it would have to be some really marvelous, crazy thing that would see it go to 40%. But stranger things have happened~ :brow:


I don't think they're going to go back up. Trump's approval numbers act differently than any other politician's approval numbers I've ever seen. Things which would normally send other politician's approval numbers bouncing up and down like a basketball being dribbled down court don't budge his.

That's been to his advantage up until now. But now that they're moving that is a sign that his precious supporters are bailing, I think once he loses them he will never get them back. I've been watching his supporters for a long time and they are the most stubborn people i have ever seen. Unbendable up until the moment they break, but once they break they turn that into vindictive hatred.

They loved Paul Ryan until the moment when they almost in mass turned to hating him. What Ryan did which was unforgivable was he said on TV that he was open to some compromise on amnesty in an immigration bill which failed to ever be passed.

The list is long of the GOP politician's they have latched onto and loved before they turned that around to hate. It all has to do with white race, white superiority. .

If Trump fails to build the wall, and that means build the wall literally, figuratively, and metaphorically. They'll turn on him and that will be that. Immigration, legal and illegal is issue number one through ten for his base supporters.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:05 am 
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Today I calculated the weighted mean on the raw numbers of the 7 latest polls. 36.2% approve, and 57.2% disapprove.

538's adjusted and weighted average comes out about the same, they have 36.9% approve, and the same 57.2% disapproval.

It's apparent to me that if the average there wasn't factoring in previous polls going back weeks, their approval number would be lower, about like mine. The disapproval number at 538 has stabilized, and that is why my snapshot weighted mean gives the same result as their regressed average.


The reason I did that today was so I can watch and see the effect the North Korean saber rattling has on his future numbers. We're aghast. But it's hard to predict how his core supporters will react in the future days. Some of them are libertarians and some are conservatives who were neocons at one time. Some are excited, some are not as enthused.

Whatever it was that moved the polls last week has moved them and the numbers have since stabilized, but there is no sign that they are returning to the mean like long term polling averages usually do. If the North Korean flap doesn't move them further it looks like 36% might be the size of his base going forward. A total loss for him of about 3%.


I'll be looking at it again in about a week to see what the threat of nuclear war brings. I do worry that it will rally folks around him. "The People" do tend to be stupid.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:18 pm 
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The plan to see what the threat of nuclear war brings got derailed by Nazi's.

The threat of nuclear war and Nazi's combined have little effect on the approval disapproval question and during that mess Trumps numbers went up a bit more returning us to the trend line from before.

The 538 average today is 37.6% approval and 55.5% disapproval. Approval up 0.7% Disapproval down 1.7%. That disproportionate disapproval appears to be people moving to a state of undecided. That's odd.


Today I saw some state polls for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states were the close contest states and they would give results most similar to the national poll numbers. They average 35% approval and 55% disapproval. After seeing them I feel that some of the national pollsters may be herding a bit, pumping Trumps approval up a bit.

But I saw something which strikes me as a better question to ask than do you approve or disapprove, giving people four options to answer with that some or strongly factor thrown in. These state polls asked are you embarrassed, or do you feel proud. That is a question with only two answers.

The average of that question is 64% Embarrassed to 26% Proud. I think those are the hard numbers. Trumps base is 26%.



If a reason comes along to give Congress reasonable grounds I think they'll impeach him.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:09 am 
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It's time to bring this thread back to life. :D

After a long period of day to day bumping along generating about the same old same old every day, the 538 Trump disapproval page shows new movement as of this last week.

It's within 0.1% of setting a new record low for Trump this evening. Today's approval is 36.7%, on Aug 7 it was 36.6%.

Today's Monmouth University poll was the new low, showing his support at 32% amoung a raft of polls showing his support around 35, 36, and 37 percent.

Monmouth University is highly rated by 538, an A+ polling house.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:47 pm 
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It did it this afternoon! Approval 36.5%, Disapproval 57.4%. We're in uncharted territory. :D

The approval is below his lowest to date, the disapproval ties two previous highs which lasted for a day on Aug 3 and 29.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:09 am 
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R7HckUilVA

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:33 pm 
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I've got two power poles the damned woodpeckers have made into Swiss cheese like this:

Image


I've spent all of the fall repairing their damage again. :|


Today there were 14 new polls, Trump's approval fell another 0.1%, and his disapproval went up too. It's 36.4% approval and 57.5% disapproval. The numbers are lower and higher than they ever have been before.

:D

Two pollsters found his support at a low of 32%, two more found it to be at 34%.

It's been a while since I've posted the link, so I'll post it again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:06 am 
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I've got two power poles the damned woodpeckers have made into Swiss cheese like this:

Image


I've spent all of the fall repairing their damage again. :|


Today there were 14 new polls, Trump's approval fell another 0.1%, and his disapproval went up too. It's 36.4% approval and 57.5% disapproval. The numbers are lower and higher than they ever have been before.

:D

Two pollsters found his support at a low of 32%, two more found it to be at 34%.

It's been a while since I've posted the link, so I'll post it again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/


hate it when that happens. they are probably descendants of woody.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:38 am 
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How TF are we applauding that only a third of the country approves of Donald Trump? A third of the people in this fucked up country thinks he's fine?

He received 46% of the popular vote. So I want to ask the 13% of the assholes in this country who have decided that they made a mistake, how they think the deranged animal has changed since they wandered aimlessly into a voting booth on Nov 8th and cast their ballot for him.

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