JoeMemphis wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 4:24 pm
It might seem a little counter intuitive, but a UPS strike creates a ton of stress with their competitors. It’s an opportunity to take some market share but in the short run it will be hell picking up the slack. Makes their operations guys nervous.
It'd be a good way for UPS to lose half their business in the long AND short run mostly to non-union FedEx. Nothing happening right now, according to this Reuters story an hour ago:
https://www.reuters.com/business/teamst ... 023-07-05/
Both sides have dueling statements. Teamsters:
https://teamster.org/2023/07/after-mara ... -collapse/
UPS:
https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/pr ... table.html
Again, trying to read the tea leaves in Kabuki Theater that is labor negotiations. First, the contract does not expire and the strike can't happen until July 31 - that's three weeks away. Back 20 years ago, You could get an offer on 2 days before expiration, and vote it on the last day before. But these days members demand a chance to look over the contract instead of having it thrust upon them and having to immediate vote. So, most contract proposals are given by the company AT LEAST a week early.
So, if they were given a LBFO (Last Best and Final Offer, which, as I said before is always the LAST offer a company will make without a work stoppage. It is their bottom line) next week that the union negotiators are happy with, it could stop. But the company gave their word to give them the LBFO today, so the price of poker would go up for the company to miss the deadline they gave their word on. They'd have to have someone so good it would mollify the negotiators that they would recommend. The price of recommendation would certainly go up.
That would be stupid of UPS.
Now, looking at their statements, there are specific things in the Teamsters statement that I find interesting:
Around 4 a.m., UPS walked away from the bargaining table after presenting an unacceptable offer to the Teamsters that did not address members’ needs. The UPS Teamsters National Negotiating Committee unanimously rejected the package.
Following marathon negotiations, UPS refused to give the Teamsters a last, best, and final offer, telling the union the company had nothing more to give.
Number one, that the company walked away, not the Teamsters. Number two, that they refused to give the LBFO.
The company's statement says in part:
The Teamsters have stopped negotiating despite historic proposals that build on our industry-leading pay. We have nearly a month left to negotiate. We have not walked away, and the union has a responsibility to remain at the table.
They deny walking away, saying it was the Teamsters that left. They also DO NOT DENY giving the LBFO, which, if they did, they would deny. So they didn't. They also said there is almost a month left. So, are they saying they had no intention of keeping their word to deliver the LBFO today?
That's stupid. As I said, in that case, the price of a contract has went up for UPS. It'll take a lot more for a recommendation from the Committee, and I'm quite sure the membership WILL NOT overturn a recommendation to strike. It's the Teamsters, after all.
And the danger for UPS is going to increase every day before the 31st, as shippers won't be caught flat-footed. FedEx will happily take over UPS accounts starting now, so that customers won't be unable to ship if there's a strike. And they'll take over starting now. Joe has said before that business doesn't like uncertainty, and they'll simply jump to the non-union carrier and never go back.
It's time for UPS to end this NOW with an acceptable offer that will be recommended. It's the only way to preserve the business and the profits.