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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:45 am 
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We lose another House Election?

I'm just wondering when a stunning lack of ability to win an election, or motivate the base outside of Democratic strongholds, would finally lead to a political restructuring. Maybe never. There is no state lobby in the House more powerful than California. They are all politically and financially protected by having a California representative in charge of the House caucus.

You can tell me she's great and you like her. I don't dislike her. I would vote for her. But she is a loser. As stories mount regarding her new stranglehold on power again, and as we see the DNC fail once again to effectively recruit in rural districts or fund those races, I'm just wondering how many loses it will take.

The GOP has been kicking our asses for almost 10 years by outmanaging elections from the grassroots up. They have been recruiting and training everyone from dog catcher to Governor, everywhere. Their success is historic. We still don't seem to care. We still don't have a change of strategy, change of leadership, or a smidgen of accountability.

Except Howard Dean. We fired him when he had the most effective election strategy in my lifetime. We seem to get further from that winning strategy every year. Maybe a Senate campaign lead from NY and a House campaign lead from California has lost us enough elections...after we lose one more.

Or not.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:07 am 
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Don't start me on the Democratic leadership. I still think it's the best thing that ever happened to the Republicans, who would be a struggling minority party otherwise.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:16 am 
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What is alarming is that with every loss, the entrenched get stronger, because there are fewer would-be opponents to challenge them.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:43 pm 
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What is alarming is that with every loss, the entrenched get stronger, because there are fewer would-be opponents to challenge them.


That is true in both parties. Sadly.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:58 pm 
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The person in charge of winning the House in 2018 for Democrats is the head of the DCCC, Ben Ray Lujan. He's a Rep from New Mexico.

Now, to be clear, almost nobody expected the Democrats to retake the House in 2018 - I think it's still a long shot because all politics is local and people tend to stick with their incumbent regardless of how much of a dumbass the President is; and they need to really retake A LOT of seats to regain control thanks to gerrymandering - but I would say if we do worse than expected, he's the main man to blame.

I hope Democrats running for House seats in 2018 do pledge to rein in the highly unpopular Trump, but yes, they need to campaign on more than just what they're against, and offer a different vision for the country.

The Republicans will get shellacked. EVERY President's party usually does poorly in their first midterms, even the Sainted Ron Reagan did, and I suspect now the Republicans are in worse trouble. Of course, overconfidence has been our doom (including in 2016), so I don't say that too loudly.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:18 pm 
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The person in charge of winning the House in 2018 for Democrats is the head of the DCCC, Ben Ray Lujan. He's a Rep from New Mexico.

Now, to be clear, almost nobody expected the Democrats to retake the House in 2018 - I think it's still a long shot because all politics is local and people tend to stick with their incumbent regardless of how much of a dumbass the President is; and they need to really retake A LOT of seats to regain control thanks to gerrymandering - but I would say if we do worse than expected, he's the main man to blame.

I hope Democrats running for House seats in 2018 do pledge to rein in the highly unpopular Trump, but yes, they need to campaign on more than just what they're against, and offer a different vision for the country.

The Republicans will get shellacked. EVERY President's party usually does poorly in their first midterms, even the Sainted Ron Reagan did, and I suspect now the Republicans are in worse trouble. Of course, overconfidence has been our doom (including in 2016), so I don't say that too loudly.


I would agree. The best thing you got going for you is Trump. He isn't polling well and as you point out historically the President's party usually does poorly in midterms. I would also agree that you need to be about something more than anti-Trump. Anti-trump is not a vision.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:19 pm 
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I would agree. The best thing you got going for you is Trump. He isn't polling well and as you point out historically the President's party usually does poorly in midterms. I would also agree that you need to be about something more than anti-Trump. Anti-trump is not a vision.

I think your party has more to worry about than ours. Why would you think we're interested in your advice? After all, you DO want us to lose, don't you?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:33 pm 
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This guy seems to be pretty decent. He shows his work, explains how he arrives at his forecasts. Can't see anything horrible with his methodology.

http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-forecast/

His projection, right now, and remember, November 2018 is still far away and even Monday hasn't happened yet :mrgreen: , is ...

The Dems have a 46% chance of taking the House majority. Republicans have a 53% chance of keeping theirs.

Most notably: the gap has narrowed dramatically since early 2017.

Image

Things are moving our way.

Please note: talking about data has nothing to do with my views of the so-called Democratic establishment or leadership and whether they could be doing a better job. I agree Howard Dean had some insights they need to listen to - again.

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Last edited by ProfessorX on Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:34 pm 
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no

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:17 pm 
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I think your party has more to worry about than ours. Why would you think we're interested in your advice? After all, you DO want us to lose, don't you?


It's an opinion. That's all. Ignore it if you choose.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:16 pm 
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If the country wasn't half full of assholes I don't believe we would be hearing half the anti-Pelosi tripe we are subjected to these days. Pelosi is no better or worse than any other vote whoring Democrat.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:25 pm 
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As bad as Pelosi is you need to ask who would be next in line to replace her? It seems the DNC has a recent history of not looking to leadership that will have a broad appeal across the country. If Pelosi were to announce she was stepping down from leadership how soon after would we be hearing " I hope the next leader is a [fill in the blank]". Every example will be a qualified person that only appeals to a small portion of the electorate.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:26 pm 
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It's an opinion. That's all. Ignore it if you choose.

Yep. Again, why would we want advice from someone who wants us to lose?

I mean, that's it in a nutshell. You aren't interested in helping us figure out how to win, now, are you? I'm not trying to be insulting, just realistic. I may give you advice on how your party needs to do the right thing, but I'm not going to give you advice on how to beat us. For instance: Trump is the most corrupt President in history, and your party needs to impeach him. That's because you should put the nation before the party. But I'll never tell you what you can do to win elections.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:26 pm 
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I think your party has more to worry about than ours. Why would you think we're interested in your advice? After all, you DO want us to lose, don't you?


No reason to be so rude.

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"my choice is for people like you to be deported -Ike Bana 5/13/18

"within weeks of being rid of the likes of you, rid of every fucking one of you,we would begin to see what kind of country this ought to be" Ike Bana 6/14/18


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:30 pm 
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No reason to be so rude.

Not being rude, just realistic. You do the same thing, and I've told you time and again, you want to see us destroyed, so your advice isn't wanted, either.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:31 pm 
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Yep. Again, why would we want advice from someone who wants us to lose?

I mean, that's it in a nutshell. You aren't interested in helping us figure out how to win, now, are you? I'm not trying to be insulting, just realistic. I may give you advice on how your party needs to do the right thing, but I'm not going to give you advice on how to beat us. For instance: Trump is the most corrupt President in history, and your party needs to impeach him. That's because you should put the nation before the party. But I'll never tell you what you can do to win elections.



Maybe because the Democratic Party needs to appeal to a broader portion of the US Electorate. Because currently their voters are so concentrated into such a small geographical area of our country they can't win the House, have a hard time winning and keeping the Senate and even lost the electoral college to the most corrupt and unqualified person in close to at least 100 years.

But, because your attitude is also the attitude of DNC leadership their appeal will continue to be concentrated.

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"my choice is for people like you to be deported -Ike Bana 5/13/18

"within weeks of being rid of the likes of you, rid of every fucking one of you,we would begin to see what kind of country this ought to be" Ike Bana 6/14/18


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:32 pm 
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Maybe because the Democratic Party needs to appeal to a broader portion of the US Electorate. Because currently their voters are so concentrated into such a small geographical area of our country they can't win the House, have a hard time winning and keeping the Senate and even lost the electoral college to the most corrupt and unqualified person in close to at least 100 years.

But, because your attitude is also the attitude of DNC leadership their appeal will continue to be concentrated.

Keep with Trump, he's your boy! It's the Trump party now.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:43 pm 
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Keep with Trump, he's your boy! It's the Trump party now.


That is the best hope the DNC has, getting the general public to recognize Trump as the face of the GOP. Which is why Rep Pelosi will refuse to ever pursue impeachment against him.

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"my choice is for people like you to be deported -Ike Bana 5/13/18

"within weeks of being rid of the likes of you, rid of every fucking one of you,we would begin to see what kind of country this ought to be" Ike Bana 6/14/18


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:46 pm 
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That is the best hope the DNC has, getting the general public to recognize Trump as the face of the GOP. Which is why Rep Pelosi will refuse to ever pursue impeachment against him.

No, he IS the GOP, not the face. He's getting rid of anyone who will stand up to him. Two Senators out already, and McCain will likely not be around long. Bannon is looking to take the moderate Congressmen and Senators out in the primaries, and he and Trump talk every day, so Trump is in on it.

That's just the reality of your party.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:09 pm 
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No, he IS the GOP, not the face. He's getting rid of anyone who will stand up to him. Two Senators out already, and McCain will likely not be around long. Bannon is looking to take the moderate Congressmen and Senators out in the primaries, and he and Trump talk every day, so Trump is in on it.

That's just the reality of your party.


The biggest problem the GOP will have with Trump is after he leaves office. Just imagine the tweets he will let loose with then. Personally I think the GOP will survive the midterm [maybe loose the Senate]. But once Trump's term is over is when he will really damage the GOP.

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"my choice is for people like you to be deported -Ike Bana 5/13/18

"within weeks of being rid of the likes of you, rid of every fucking one of you,we would begin to see what kind of country this ought to be" Ike Bana 6/14/18


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:12 pm 
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The biggest problem the GOP will have with Trump is after he leaves office. Just imagine the tweets he will let loose with then. Personally I think the GOP will survive the midterm [maybe loose the Senate]. But once Trump's term is over is when he will really damage the GOP.

And you will immediately want to act like he was just an anomaly. Something that shouldn't haunt the GOP. You'll want to talk about Bill Clinton and Carter instead.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:18 pm 
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And you will immediately want to act like he was just an anomaly. Something that shouldn't haunt the GOP. You'll want to talk about Bill Clinton and Carter instead.


Clinton and Carter were both career politicians who were part of mainstream of Democratic Party politics. The only comparison to them and Trump is all three were elected thanks to a long line of unexpected events. BTW, after he left office it was years before Carter was able to remake his image. He unlike Trump was smart enough to lay low and pursue his passions. A period of time when the DNC distanced themselves from him.

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"my choice is for people like you to be deported -Ike Bana 5/13/18

"within weeks of being rid of the likes of you, rid of every fucking one of you,we would begin to see what kind of country this ought to be" Ike Bana 6/14/18


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:20 pm 
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Clinton and Carter were both career politicians who were part of mainstream of Democratic Party politics. The only comparison to them and Trump is all three were elected thanks to a long line of unexpected events. BTW, after he left office it was years before Carter was able to remake his image. He unlike Trump was smart enough to lay low and pursue his passions. A period of time when the DNC distanced themselves from him.

Deflection.

The Republican Party is now Trump's party. Hell, Your Senator, Lindsey Graham, is Trump's best bud now, playing golf with him and doing his bidding on legislation. Trump is now the Republican mainstream.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:29 pm 
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Yep. Again, why would we want advice from someone who wants us to lose?

I mean, that's it in a nutshell. You aren't interested in helping us figure out how to win, now, are you? I'm not trying to be insulting, just realistic. I may give you advice on how your party needs to do the right thing, but I'm not going to give you advice on how to beat us. For instance: Trump is the most corrupt President in history, and your party needs to impeach him. That's because you should put the nation before the party. But I'll never tell you what you can do to win elections.

I am interested in maintaining a working two party political system. I have said as much on numerous occasions. However, I will and have listened to numerous comments you have made over the years regarding what the Republican party / Conservatives should and should not do. I don't recall that I have told you to keep your opinion to yourself. I don't have to tell you this is a discussion board and people are free to offer opinions on whatever topics they choose. I don't tell you what to comment on; you are free to comment on anything you wish. If you do not like or care for my opinion, ignore it. It's that simple and does not bother me a bit. However, some people other than you might actually have an interest in what others have to say. So as long as I follow board rules I will continue to comment as I see fit.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:34 pm 
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I am interested in maintaining a working two party political system. I have said as much on numerous occasions. However, I will and have listened to numerous comments you have made over the years regarding what the Republican party / Conservatives should and should not do. I don't recall that I have told you to keep your opinion to yourself. I don't have to tell you this is a discussion board and people are free to offer opinions on whatever topics they choose. I don't tell you what to comment on; you are free to comment on anything you wish. If you do not like or care for my opinion, ignore it. It's that simple and does not bother me a bit. However, some people other than you might actually have an interest in what others have to say. So as long as I follow board rules I will continue to comment as I see fit.

The difference, Joe, is that I don't give Republicans advice on how to win elections. My advice is more along the lines of: "Don't be corrupt, don't destroy our nation" kind of advice. Right now, my advice to Republicans would be to impeach Trump, as he's trying to destroy our nation, and he's committing treason with an enemy of our nation.

I just don't pretend like I want Republicans to win elections.

Glen, for instance, hates Pelosi, and so will always tell us we need to get rid of her, because he wants to see her humiliated, while pretending he has our best interests at heart.


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