RadioFreeLiberal.com

Smart Voices, Be Heard
It is currently Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:22 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Forum rules


Please click here to view the forum rules



Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 165 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 7  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:27 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:01 pm
Posts: 16868
Including Becky, who is obviously very confused about more than just politics. What we are up against in this country.

Image

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:08 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:10 pm
Posts: 17945
Location: The blue parts of the map
Is that 40% of the entire demographic or 40% of the ones that voted?

They notoriously don't vote.

I would hope that the events of this year have shaken some of your over-generalized assumptions about the monolithic age grade called "millennials," which was foisted on us largely by advertising agencies.

We may just have to conclude that they're people.

_________________
"Our democratic institutions... seem to have been upended by frat-boy billionaires from California," remarked Canadian politician Charlie Angus. (BBC, 11/27/18)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:41 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:01 pm
Posts: 16868
I believe such numbers are typically a percentage of those in the identified demographic who voted. This is.

Neo-confederates and other white nationalists are "just people" too. White people are "just people." And 58% of them voted for Trump. Just people though, I guess. :roll:

The thing is, I keep hearing about how it's the young people (is that better than millennials?) who are gonna save this country...and 40% of the young white people voted for Trump. Who's gonna fucking save the country from them?

PS - if they notoriously don't vote then they have notoriously less to complain about when it comes to the kind of country they're left with whenever they finally decide to get off their dead asses and start voting.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:48 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:27 pm
Posts: 8482
Location: miles from nowhere
See bird’s theorem.

_________________
bird's theorem-"we the people" are stupid.

"No one is so foolish as to choose war over peace. In peace sons bury their fathers, in war fathers bury their sons." - Herodotus

The new motto of the USA: Unum de multis. Out of one, many.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:41 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:10 pm
Posts: 17945
Location: The blue parts of the map
The data gets distorted when they don't register either.

It's well known that it's one of the lowest-turnout demographics, if not the very lowest.

Anyway, drumpf was 40% in most demos, excluding maybe women and definitely aging left wingers.

30% of the people in any country are total shitheads, and beyond hope. If you want to call this Z's Law, go right ahead. Of course the number of temporary shitheads fluctuates. All of the admittedly low-quality data seems to indicate that this figure hit a near-record high point among US white males, after 8 years with an African American president. It might have gone as high as a national aggregate 55-65%, depending on the metrics used.

_________________
"Our democratic institutions... seem to have been upended by frat-boy billionaires from California," remarked Canadian politician Charlie Angus. (BBC, 11/27/18)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:04 pm 
Offline
Member

Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:36 pm
Posts: 250
Listening to NPR's 1A and I believe the stat sited was that 19% of millennial's voted.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:36 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:01 pm
Posts: 16868
Listening to NPR's 1A and I believe the stat sited was that 19% of millennial's voted.


And 40% of the white one's voted for cadet bone spurs.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:29 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:10 pm
Posts: 17945
Location: The blue parts of the map
There is no doubt that 40% of the demo in question voted for the bone spur. That is the data.

I was bringing up the unpleasant fact that it's a demo which is notorious for not voting. I didn't even mention that, in most cases, the Russian psyop was not aimed at switching votes as much as suppressing votes in target groups. It is a known fact that turnout was down in all the groups that had given the core support to Obama.

I missed a lot of this, not being in the target area. They'd pretty much given up on California.

Even so, anyone who endured twitter saw all the fake berniebots sowing doubt among Democratic voters. It wasn't all just trolls who barely spoke English pouncing by the hundreds. They're better at it than that. Bernie voters were often young voters, and saw Hillary as a lesser evil. The question then became whether to hold your nose and vote Hillary, vote third party (also addressed in the Russian psyop) or stay home. Lesser-evil voters are turned-off voters, and there's no way all the negative stuff didn't contribute to the enthusiasm gap.

_________________
"Our democratic institutions... seem to have been upended by frat-boy billionaires from California," remarked Canadian politician Charlie Angus. (BBC, 11/27/18)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:27 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:27 pm
Posts: 8482
Location: miles from nowhere
The data gets distorted when they don't register either.

It's well known that it's one of the lowest-turnout demographics, if not the very lowest.

Anyway, drumpf was 40% in most demos, excluding maybe women and definitely aging left wingers.

30% of the people in any country are total shitheads, and beyond hope. If you want to call this Z's Law, go right ahead. Of course the number of temporary shitheads fluctuates. All of the admittedly low-quality data seems to indicate that this figure hit a near-record high point among US white males, after 8 years with an African American president. It might have gone as high as a national aggregate 55-65%, depending on the metrics used.

Agreed re: shitheadedness fluctuation. All people are idiots about something, somewhere, sometime. Such is the nature of being a people. The key is to minimize, not celebrate, how often and about what one is an idiot.

_________________
bird's theorem-"we the people" are stupid.

"No one is so foolish as to choose war over peace. In peace sons bury their fathers, in war fathers bury their sons." - Herodotus

The new motto of the USA: Unum de multis. Out of one, many.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:36 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:32 pm
Posts: 14032
Is that 40% of the entire demographic or 40% of the ones that voted?

They notoriously don't vote.

I would hope that the events of this year have shaken some of your over-generalized assumptions about the monolithic age grade called "millennials," which was foisted on us largely by advertising agencies.

We may just have to conclude that they're people.

How could the ones who didn't vote vote for Trump.

Millennials aren't a real thing.

_________________
We must develop and maintain the capacity to forgive. He who is devoid of the power to forgive is devoid of the power to love.-MLK.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:44 pm 
Offline
Policy Wonk

Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:39 am
Posts: 2083
A function of the decline of our public school system?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:09 pm 
Online
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am
Posts: 11487
How could the ones who didn't vote vote for Trump.

Millennials aren't a real thing.


You might be misunderstanding what Zowie is saying.

He's asking if the statistic which is the topic of this thread has had it's base rate applied.

For instance suppose 40% of millennial's voted for Trump, but only 50% of millennial's voted. Applying the base rate of 50% would reduce the number of millennial's who voted for Trump by half down to 20%. Since the thread title says "Forty percent of white millennials voted for Trump" but the adjusted statistic is actually only 20% the basis of the thread topic would be invalid.

It is a very common thing to have statistical numbers which have not had the basis applied to be used to make a sweeping point, and when statistics are used in that way it's a formal fallacy of logic. It's always wrong.



Here's an example from Wikipedia on this issue of base rate neglect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

Drunk drivers

A group of police officers have breathalyzers displaying false drunkenness in 5% of the cases in which the driver is sober. However, the breathalyzers never fail to detect a truly drunk person. One in a thousand drivers is driving drunk. Suppose the police officers then stop a driver at random, and force the driver to take a breathalyzer test. It indicates that the driver is drunk. We assume you don't know anything else about him or her.

How high is the probability he or she really is drunk?

Many would answer as high as 95%, but the correct probability is about 2%.

An explanation for this is as follows: On average, for every 1,000 drivers tested, 1 driver is drunk, and it is 100% certain that for that driver there is a true positive test result, so there is 1 true positive test result.

999 drivers are not drunk, and among those drivers there are 5% false positive test results, so there are 49.95 false positive test results.

Therefore, the probability that one of the drivers among the 1 + 49.95 = 50.95 positive test results really is drunk is 1/50.95 = 0.019627.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:11 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 10:20 pm
Posts: 6531
Agreed re: shitheadedness fluctuation. All people are idiots about something, somewhere, sometime. Such is the nature of being a people. The key is to minimize, not celebrate, how often and about what one is an idiot.


That's funny. Plus I think it would make an excellent country song. All people are idiots about something. It might make an interesting thread to find out what that is for some people.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:20 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2011 12:07 am
Posts: 16845
let me guess...these millens are those who were on FB constantly since..birth...

_________________
Who are these...flag-sucking halfwits fleeced fooled by stupid little rich kids They speak for all that is cruel stupid
They are racists hate mongers I piss down the throats of these Nazis Im too old to worry whether they like it Fuck them.
HST.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:35 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:32 pm
Posts: 14032
Let's assume that 50 percent of this pretend and media driven group "millennials" voted. To misconstrue the statistic as being 40% of millennials voting and non as voting for Trump, you would need 80% of "millennial" votes to be for Trump. That is ridiculous.

_________________
We must develop and maintain the capacity to forgive. He who is devoid of the power to forgive is devoid of the power to love.-MLK.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:01 am 
Online
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am
Posts: 11487
Let's assume that 50 percent of this pretend and media driven group "millennials" voted. To misconstrue the statistic as being 40% of millennials voting and non as voting for Trump, you would need 80% of "millennial" votes to be for Trump. That is ridiculous.


I did some searching.


How Millennials voted this election

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2 ... als-voted/

Brookings says millennials are 18 to 29 year olds. They say 50% of them voted, and of the ones who voted 37% voted for Trump.

Furthermore of the ones which voted for Trump 80% of them were Whites. Note; that's not the percent of White millennials who voted for Trump, that's the percent of millennial Trump voters who were White. Two completely different things. :|

That's not enough information to calculate what precentage of the white millennials voted for Trump. They do give the number of whites who voted for Clinton, it was 47%, but they do not give the breakdown of the Whites who voted for other candidates. Or the percentage of millennials who did, or did not vote, were White.




Why 41 percent of white millennials voted for Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... 6f32933991

This article says millennials are 18 to 34 year olds.

It also says 84% of millennial Trump voters were white. Which is 4% more than Brookings numbers but it includes an additional 5 years of age when defining who are millennials. Note again; that's not the percent of White millennials who voted for Trump, that's the percent of millennial Trump voters who were White. Two completely different things. :|



That WP article was based upon a genforwardsurvey, it had a link to the survey: http://genforwardsurvey.com/assets/uplo ... plines.pdf

It has the complete (base rate adjusted) data:

Among White millennials, 31% voted for Clinton, 30% voted for Trump, 13% voted for someone else, and 27% did not vote at all.

Among all millennials, 37% voted for Clinton, 20% voted for Trump, 10% voted for someone else, and 33% did not vote at all.


This threads title, and that Washington Post article misstates the facts due to base rate neglect. :|


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:24 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:01 pm
Posts: 16868
Let's assume that 50 percent of this pretend and media driven group "millennials" voted. To misconstrue the statistic as being 40% of millennials voting and non as voting for Trump, you would need 80% of "millennial" votes to be for Trump. That is ridiculous.


WTF are you talking about? We've had names for various age cohorts in this country for seven decades. Among those so identified are baby boomers like me, gen-X'ers, and most recently are millennials. "Anyone born between 1981 and 1996 (ages 22-37 in 2018) will be considered a Millennial." (Pew Research) But for some reason you, and some highly sensitive others hereabouts, seem to have a problem with the term, "millennial". Most millennials have a problem with the term "millennial." Tough shit. Call yourselves the 1981-1996'ers...who gives a shit?

As far as the numbers go...WTF are you talking about? 50%...80%??? The numbers we have been discussing come from all the same sources of voter demographics as other demographic numbers we regularly discuss. Approximately 20% of millennials got up off their dead asses and went out to vote. The rest of them can STFU about what has happened to their country that they don't give a shit enough about to get off their asses and vote. Of the 20% of millenials who voted...40% of the white ones who voted, like the stupid fucking cow above, voted for Donald Trump.

You're ridiculous.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:56 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:27 pm
Posts: 8482
Location: miles from nowhere
Personally, I don’t give a flying fuck how many of what group voted for Trump. If you pulled a real or symbolic lever for a guy KNOWN to be a serial liar, a pervert and a serial fraudster then you are a civic idiot. You may be a nice guy who mows the old lady next door’s lawn and volunteers at a soup kitchen but in your civic duty you are an idiot.

_________________
bird's theorem-"we the people" are stupid.

"No one is so foolish as to choose war over peace. In peace sons bury their fathers, in war fathers bury their sons." - Herodotus

The new motto of the USA: Unum de multis. Out of one, many.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:28 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:01 pm
Posts: 16868
Personally, I don’t give a flying fuck how many of what group voted for Trump. If you pulled a real or symbolic lever for a guy KNOWN to be a serial liar, a pervert and a serial fraudster then you are a civic idiot. You may be a nice guy who mows the old lady next door’s lawn and volunteers at a soup kitchen but in your civic duty you are an idiot.


Y'know bird...I see data like this and I feel differently walking around white people now. I feel more comfortable knowing than wondering who I'm likely to be dealing with.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:36 am 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:27 pm
Posts: 8482
Location: miles from nowhere

Y'know bird...I see data like this and I feel differently walking around white people now. I feel more comfortable knowing than wondering who I'm likely to be dealing with.

I get you, Ike. I’m white and I know that any white person can be be full of shit. I grew up teased and bullied by enough of them. All you can do is be as careful in your dealings with people as you can be. Otherwise you’ll descend into paranoia or withdraw from human contact. Of course as the old saw goes: just because I’m paranoid, doesn’t mean they’re not out to get me.

_________________
bird's theorem-"we the people" are stupid.

"No one is so foolish as to choose war over peace. In peace sons bury their fathers, in war fathers bury their sons." - Herodotus

The new motto of the USA: Unum de multis. Out of one, many.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:56 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:10 pm
Posts: 17945
Location: The blue parts of the map
No, it's simple. At the time the marketing people foisted their latest label on us, the only true "millennials" were about 11 years old, max. Move along, these aren't the demographic you're looking for.

"Screenagers" and "digerati" weren't sticking, and "gen-Z" was already taken, so they made up a better label. Didn't matter that it was wrong. We're post-modern, since when is truth an issue? It was sexy. It's pregnant with unconscious associations, the way marketing people like. You know, like Millennium and the Second Coming and all that. Sure, the 2000s were a new millennium, but that's too abstract. They were going for the religious thing. They've sure treated the group like God's Chosen Ones. The rest of us, presumably, are predestined to burn for all consumer eternity in a Hell of prescription drugs and cheap catheters and old bats croaking on the medic alert because they've fallen and they can't get up.

After that, pardon me for being a hopeless old lefty, and getting nervous when age cohorts are assigned social worth based on who's the most easily manipulated into buying shit.

---------

The statistical base thing is exactly what I'm talking about.

You can't start with one whole age cohort, then take out the 80% who didn't vote, then take a percentage of the ones that did, then assign that percentage to the whole cohort and call them a bunch of blitherheads. Doesn't work. It's fuzzy math. It leaves out apathy and voter suppression. Had the original thesis of this thread been that 40% of white millennials WHO VOTED picked drumpf, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Anyway, it also means that 60% didn't. The glass is more than half full. Gets me back to Z's Law. An average of 35% of the people in any country are total shitheads.

_________________
"Our democratic institutions... seem to have been upended by frat-boy billionaires from California," remarked Canadian politician Charlie Angus. (BBC, 11/27/18)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:45 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Posts: 12744
Location: Sunny South Florida
Dunno, as I told tritumi, who oddly seemed to share Steven Bannon's fondness for the theories of Strauss & Howe ... demographic generations and age cohorts are never monolithic ... as heck, neither are most forms of human groups. I know this all started with the "Baby Boomers" but lest we forget, they were NEVER all Hippies, nor Yippies, nor Yuppies. At best, if you're talking about millions of people who have nothing in common other than being born in the same decade or two ... while they may share certain historical experiences, that's IT. Why would we expect them to share the same political beliefs, racial attitudes, religious outlook, or preferences for consumer products? In the latter area, I understand - marketers want to be able to see them that way so that they can be sold more shit they don't need - but even that is also always an overgeneralization.

In general, it's true that younger people tend to be more liberal, and that people grow more conservative as they grow older. That turning of the generational axis has some reality to it and is why the Boomers famously said never trust anybody over age 30 ... until they became older than 30. :D That general rule also runs across the shoals of reality, witness Dylan Roof, poor foolish Becky Johnson, and etc, and etc. Plus the Gray Panthers, who fight for single payer (and not just Medicare for themselves). The thing about sociology is there just really are rarely universal laws ... more like observable trends.

_________________
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:46 pm 
Offline
Policy Wonk
User avatar

Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am
Posts: 3902
if we listen to MLK he says hate cant drive out hate, it would stand to reason that hating trump supporters wont drive out hateful trump supporters.

_________________
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA3APlQeIAU


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:05 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Posts: 12744
Location: Sunny South Florida
I don't hate Trump supporters.

I deplore (SOME of) them. But the thing about deploration, is that I will stop deploring them, when they stop acting in deplorable ways.

I believe this notion is known as "personal responsibility".

Maybe elsewhere, as "tough love". ;)

I love them enough to tell them they are wrong. I think that kind of love is very necessary. ;)

_________________
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:34 pm 
Offline
Board Emeritus

Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:27 pm
Posts: 8482
Location: miles from nowhere
No, it's simple. At the time the marketing people foisted their latest label on us, the only true "millennials" were about 11 years old, max. Move along, these aren't the demographic you're looking for.

"Screenagers" and "digerati" weren't sticking, and "gen-Z" was already taken, so they made up a better label. Didn't matter that it was wrong. We're post-modern, since when is truth an issue? It was sexy. It's pregnant with unconscious associations, the way marketing people like. You know, like Millennium and the Second Coming and all that. Sure, the 2000s were a new millennium, but that's too abstract. They were going for the religious thing. They've sure treated the group like God's Chosen Ones. The rest of us, presumably, are predestined to burn for all consumer eternity in a Hell of prescription drugs and cheap catheters and old bats croaking on the medic alert because they've fallen and they can't get up.

After that, pardon me for being a hopeless old lefty, and getting nervous when age cohorts are assigned social worth based on who's the most easily manipulated into buying shit.

---------

The statistical base thing is exactly what I'm talking about.

You can't start with one whole age cohort, then take out the 80% who didn't vote, then take a percentage of the ones that did, then assign that percentage to the whole cohort and call them a bunch of blitherheads. Doesn't work. It's fuzzy math. It leaves out apathy and voter suppression. Had the original thesis of this thread been that 40% of white millennials WHO VOTED picked drumpf, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Anyway, it also means that 60% didn't. The glass is more than half full. Gets me back to Z's Law. An average of 35% of the people in any country are total shitheads.

Hell, I’m nervous about any group being assigned social worth because generally that means the assigning group is somehow wielding power thus permitting the assigned group to be recognized as acceptable. Or that the assigned group ascends the throne while dependent upon their power or believed-power from someone else.

I just wish that people would use their heads. But then behavioral economics and bird’s theorem point out the waste of time that is.

_________________
bird's theorem-"we the people" are stupid.

"No one is so foolish as to choose war over peace. In peace sons bury their fathers, in war fathers bury their sons." - Herodotus

The new motto of the USA: Unum de multis. Out of one, many.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 165 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 7  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group