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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:42 pm 
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Quote:
Gillium (Democrat) 54% DeSantis (Repugnant) 42%


Quote:
Likely Voters
October 16-20, 2018 54% 42%





http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/21/rel1_fl.pdf

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"Corporate Democrat" phrase created at the same place "Angry Mob" was...People keep falling for rightwing talking points. How sad.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Gillium been ahead all along Libertas. Right now he sitting fancy with 7 in 9 odds.

Instead of creating a separate thread for each race mentioned in that CNN poll why don't you visit 538? You wouldn't be left typing "BREEAKING POLL alert FL Governor" if you did.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/ or https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... rms-header


All of the polls are there and they've been indexed, adjusted, averaged, and plotted.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:02 pm 
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LIke i said BREAKING and GREAT NEWS

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"Corporate Democrat" phrase created at the same place "Angry Mob" was...People keep falling for rightwing talking points. How sad.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:11 pm 
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I like Nate. Nate shows his work when it comes to his methodology. His accuracy is usually pretty good. There are people who took him to task for calling 2016 wrong, but in fairness, he's pointed out, many times, 2016's final results were actually quite close to what his final data sets were saying. It's just that people stopped reading his predictions a week or two before the election, and don't know what he was saying towards the end.

I also like going by two other sources - RCP's average of polls, because IMHO polling averages tell you the most/best; and prediction markets, because their accuracy is uncannily good.

RCP's average for Scott-Nelson is Nelson up by 1.3 points. That is razor thin. I'm biting my nails.
RCP's average for Gillum-DeSantis has Gillum up by 3.7 points. Good. Wish it was more. :mrgreen:

PredictIt has Nelson defeating Scott, 54c to 46c. Makes me a bit happier.
Also, Nate says Nelson's odds of winning the Senate race are 2/3. Likewise. Nate's weighted poll average is D+2.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... e/florida/

Final note: when it comes to deciding whether or not you should vote, consider all forms of polling predictions absolute BS voodoo until after you leave the polling place, and vote anyway.
Then go back to paying attention. No one ever has it "in the bag"; you are part of "the bag". :D

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:18 pm 
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I asked this question on the Florida Senate thread. With Hurricane Michael hitting the Panhandle, which is heavily republican, with this depress voter turnout there and thereby making it harder for DeSantis to win?

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:28 pm 
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The state is on it. On the one hand, of course, this is something they should do. Of course rules should be relaxed in the wake of a massive disaster. On the other, of course, you can't help but wonder would they do the same if it didn't hit where it did, i.e. the Panhandle.

Hurricane Michael forces Florida to ease voting rules in hard-hit counties
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics ... index.html

Gov. Rick Scott, who is challenging Democratic US Sen. Bill Nelson in a race that could decide control of the US Senate, signed an executive order Thursday allowing election supervisors in Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Liberty, and Washington counties to relax voting rules.

The eight counties are home to more than 200,000 voters, according to state officials. The scope of Michael's destruction is still emerging. The storm led to at least 19 deaths.
The governor's order authorizes officials in the affected counties to extend the early voting period to Election Day and set up additional early voting sites. Early voting normally ends the weekend before the election.
Additionally, the order allows displaced voters to request mail-in ballots to be forwarded to a different address and extends the registration date for poll watchers to October 26.


[snip][end]

Please note, in states like North Dakota, requesting your mail-in ballot be forwarded to an address that doesn't match your current one on record, seems to be resulting in losing your franchise.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:56 pm 
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I like Nate. Nate shows his work when it comes to his methodology. His accuracy is usually pretty good. There are people who took him to task for calling 2016 wrong, but in fairness, he's pointed out, many times, 2016's final results were actually quite close to what his final data sets were saying. It's just that people stopped reading his predictions a week or two before the election, and don't know what he was saying towards the end.

I also like going by two other sources - RCP's average of polls, because IMHO polling averages tell you the most/best; and prediction markets, because their accuracy is uncannily good.

RCP's average for Scott-Nelson is Nelson up by 1.3 points. That is razor thin. I'm biting my nails.
RCP's average for Gillum-DeSantis has Gillum up by 3.7 points. Good. Wish it was more. :mrgreen:

PredictIt has Nelson defeating Scott, 54c to 46c. Makes me a bit happier.
Also, Nate says Nelson's odds of winning the Senate race are 2/3. Likewise. Nate's weighted poll average is D+2.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... e/florida/

Final note: when it comes to deciding whether or not you should vote, consider all forms of polling predictions absolute BS voodoo until after you leave the polling place, and vote anyway.
Then go back to paying attention. No one ever has it "in the bag"; you are part of "the bag". :D


I've said it before, maybe you've read it, since polling developed enough to measure a wave, about the 1930's, the side which has received the benefit of a midterm wave has never lost a Senate seat, not even one.

One reason for that is they are state wide elections and as thus they are not gerrymandered districts. They are Constitutionmandered states. The full impact of the wave washes over Senate races. Some House districts are sheltered from the wave.


I think the idea that we're seeing a wave winning the house, but not for the Senate is a GOP pipe dream. Nate's Senate thing is placing too much on the idea that they can split the undecided part of a polling result and apply it to both sides to create an outcome projection.

I would apply almost all of the undecided to Democrats this cycle.


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