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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:30 pm 
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So Much For the Blue Wave


A Week After the Election, Democratic Gains Grow Stronger - NYT

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The picture for Republicans has gotten grimmer since then, as a more complete tally of votes has come in across the country.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:40 pm 
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Maine Senate Democrats Choose New Leaders, Vow Quick Action On Medicaid

The 21 Democratic state senators have selected their leadership for the new Legislature, and they say they are ready to move swiftly on Gov.-elect Janet Mills pledge to make Medicaid expansion a reality.

Current Democratic floor leader Troy Jackson, of Allagash, was nominated to be Senate president, at an evening caucaus at an Augusta restaurant.

http://www.mainepublic.org/post/maine-s ... d#stream/0


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm 
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Federal judge delays certification of Georgia election results, citing concerns over provisional ballots - WP

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A federal judge has barred the Georgia secretary of state’s office from immediately certifying election results to allow more time to address problems with thousands of provisional ballots that voters were forced to cast last week.

On Tuesday morning, in a separate case, a federal judge ordered Gwinnett County to stop rejecting absentee ballots with missing or incorrect birth dates. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Leigh Martin May addresses concerns raised by the Lawyers' Committee For Civil Rights Under Law on behalf of several voters and by Carolyn Bourdeaux, the Democratic candidate fighting to force a runoff with Republican Rep. Rob Woodall in the state’s 7th congressional district.

Tuesday is the deadline for Georgia’s 159 counties to certify their elections results, and the secretary of state had planned to certify those results Wednesday. But U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg said late Monday that the secretary of state could not certify results before Friday and that it had to “immediately establish and publicize on its website a secure and free-access hotline or website for provisional ballot voters to access to determine whether their provisional ballots were counted and, if not, the reason why.”


Why it's always a good idea to save those receipts. Especially if you've been shunted off into Provisionalstan. :problem:

Quote:
The secretary of state’s office has reported that 21,190 provisional ballots were cast in the Nov. 6 election. The Abrams campaign has said the number is more than 27,000. Voters are given provisional ballots if their registrations don’t show up in voter rolls at their precincts or if they don’t have proper identification.

The suit refers to testimony from Chris Harvey, the state director of elections, that typically only half of the provisional ballots cast will probably be counted because of problems.

Voters had until Friday to prove that they were duly registered or to prove their identities. The lawsuit names voters who said they were not given proper information about how to fix their ballots.

Abrams has filed her own lawsuit asking for a delay in certification of the results and to require election officials in two counties to stop summarily rejecting absentee ballots with minor discrepancies, as well as to accept provisional ballots from voters whose voter registration records were not updated to reflect their new addresses. Abrams would need at least 21,000 additional votes to force a runoff and just over 19,000 to initiate a recount.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:46 pm 
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Poliquin sues in federal court to stop ranked-choice count

As Maine's Secretary of State continues the process to determine winner in the 2nd Congressional District, attorneys for the campaigns of Jared Golden and Bruce Poliquin head to court.

AUGUSTA – Republican 2nd District Congressman Bruce Poliquin filed a federal lawsuit Tuesday against Maine’s Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap in an attempt to stop a tabulation of ranked-choice ballots in his race against Democratic challenger Jared Golden.

The suit filed in federal court in Bangor is asking for an injunction against Dunlap to stop what would be the first congressional race in the nation to be decided through ranked-choice voting. Neither Poliquin nor Golden secured a majority of the vote in the first round of counting, pushing the tabulation to voters’ second choices in an attempt to determine which candidate has the support of more than 50 percent of voters.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/11/13/ ... ice-count/


The GOP is now the COP - Cheater's Old Party


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:51 pm 
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AP: Democrat Kathy Hoffman to be Arizona's next schools chief

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) -- Shortly after calling Arizona’s Senate race for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, the Associated Press called another hotly contested Arizona race for the Democratic contender.

Kathy Hoffman will be Arizona’s next superintendent of public instruction.

https://www.azfamily.com/news/ap-democr ... c3d01.html


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:55 pm 
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https://www.azfamily.com/news/ap-democrat-kathy-hoffman-to-be-arizona-s-next-schools/article_bc31118a-e6e1-11e8-b454-4bbe270c3d01.html


Quote:
Like Sinema, Hoffman was trailing her Republican opponent when Election Day came to a close.

With the tabulation of mail-in ballots, however, Hoffman closed the gap between her and Frank Riggs and ultimately took the lead.

The AP called it for Hoffman Monday evening, hours after she declared victory via Twitter.

This victory is not just about me or my campaign. It's about the thousands of teachers and educators who lead our public schools every day.We did this together. We did this because the future of Arizona starts in our public schools.Words cannot express my gratitude. pic.twitter.com/6cOsI9g02l
— Kathy Hoffman for Superintendent (@kathyhoffman_az) November 12, 2018

As of 6:20 Monday evening, the only major Arizona race still up in the air is who will be secretary of state, the highest office behind the governor.

The AP called that race for Republican Steve Gaynor Tuesday night, but just like Sinema and Hoffman flipped their races, Democrat Katie Hobbs has come back to take a slim lead. She's ahead by about 5,000 votes.

Despite the AP's pronouncements, the ballot counting continues.

There are about 172,000 ballots still to be counted. While more than 80 percent of them are in Maricopa County, updated numbers will come in from Cochise, Coconino, La Paz, Pima and Pinal counties.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:12 pm 
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Just imagine if all votes counted, if just 5% more of millennial voters voted, NO close elections, we win them all.

We win all the ones we now win, we win all of them that are within 5%, and the GOP is left with a HANDFUL of seats in both houses.

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"Corporate Democrat" phrase created at the same place "Angry Mob" was...People keep falling for rightwing talking points. How sad.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:24 pm 
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Just imagine if all votes counted, if just 5% more of millennial voters voted, NO close elections, we win them all.

We win all the ones we now win, we win all of them that are within 5%, and the GOP is left with a HANDFUL of seats in both houses.

I heard either on MSNBC or Thom Hartmann that voter participation among 18 - 29 year olds increased 10% this year over 2014. If this enthusiasm continues and/or increases in 2020 the we could see another Blue Wave which would enable Democrats to undo much of the Gerrymandering and voter suppression enacted by republicans.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:14 pm 
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Florida election recount: Trailing by 37 votes, Democratic House 89 candidate sues

A Democrat who trails his Republican opponent by just 37 votes in Florida House race filed an emergency lawsuit against Secretary of State Ken Detzner to extend Palm Beach County’s recount deadline.

Jim Bonfiglio, the Demcoratic mayor of Ocean Ridge, hopes to force a manual recount in his race for state House District 89, which snakes up the coast of southern Palm Beach County and encompasses parts of Boca Raton and Delray Beach. Palm Beach County elections supervisor Susan Bucher said Monday that she isn’t sure the county will have time to carry out recounts in every statewide race, let alone the House race, by the state’s Thursday deadline.

http://gm5-lkweb.newscyclecloud.com/new ... idate-sues


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:12 pm 
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LOS ANGELES (AP) — First-time candidate Josh Harder defeated four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Denham following an updated vote count Tuesday, giving Democrats their fourth pickup of a GOP House seat in California.

https://apnews.com/3443766d610046a2bd57 ... _medium=AP

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Getting it wrong to pwn the libs:
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The American people have once again rejected liberalism. So Much For the Blue Wave

Voting with hurt fees to pwn the libs:
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because of this board... it will be very hard for me to support a Democratic candidate.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:14 pm 
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We should change the title of this topic to The Blue Wave Thread

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Getting it wrong to pwn the libs:
Quote:
The American people have once again rejected liberalism. So Much For the Blue Wave

Voting with hurt fees to pwn the libs:
Quote:
because of this board... it will be very hard for me to support a Democratic candidate.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:17 pm 
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Ignore glen, he ain't got nothing.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:20 pm 
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We should change the title of this topic to The Blue Wave Thread


Yasssssssss

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:21 pm 
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Ignore glen, he ain't got nothing.


Lol glen has abandoned the thread.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:28 pm 
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Fa-lipppppp.

So Much For the Blue Wave


California Election Results: 10th House District - NYT

Attachment:
harder-ca-10-flip.jpg
harder-ca-10-flip.jpg [ 55.62 KiB | Viewed 217 times ]


Bye, Jeff

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:59 am 
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That is good news Carmen. :D


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:36 am 
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Anatomy of an upset: LI's Thomas scores biggest state Election Day surprise

On a night of election surprises in New York, none was bigger than Kevin Thomas.

The 34-year-old Levittown Democrat had little name recognition and little staff. He had no financial help from the state party aside from free office space. His campaign-finance reports detailed no TV or radio ads but instead were filled with receipts for texting services, and Uber and Long Island Rail Road rides.

https://www.newsday.com/news/region-sta ... 1.23181627


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:06 am 
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Also, polls just closed here 20 minutes ago.

It may take some time, but all eyes are going to be on CA-45 and CA-48, Orange County and OC Beach Cities.

How many g.d. districts do we even have here, while f'ed up white con states have like a density of 3 people a mile. :problem:

Anyway, there is a very good chance they will turn light blue.


Holy crap it could actually be happening. Katie Porter just pulled ahead of that Trump sycophant Mimi Walters, 50.1-49.9.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/resul ... istrict-45

CA-48 went blue a while ago, but we've talked about that already (Bye, Dana...)

Thank you Latino and Asian-American voters who are making this happen!!!!!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:45 am 
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California Republican Party Is "Dead". Former CAREP Chairperson has written the Obit for what was once one the most powerful Political Organizations in the U.S.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/califo ... lvageable/.

The 2018 midterm elections have further endangered the standing of the California Republican Party, which saw many of its Congressional members lose to Democrats last Tuesday.

Things have gotten so bad for the California GOP that even the party’s former vice chairman believes it can’t be saved in its current incarnation.

Former Assembly Republican leader Kristin Olsen writes an obituary for her party, which she says has not been able to escape the “Toxic” branding of President Donald Trump.

The California Republican Party isn’t salvageable at this time,” she writes. “The Grand Old Party is dead – partly because it has failed to separate itself from today’s toxic, national brand of Republican politics.”

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Meet the Native American Woman Who Beat the Sponsor of North Dakota’s ID Law - NYT

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One of the most striking results of the night, though, came far from the reservations: in a normally Republican district in the Fargo area, where Ruth Buffalo became the first Native American Democratic woman elected to the North Dakota Legislature. She did it by unseating State Representative Randy Boehning, the primary sponsor of the very voter ID law Native Americans had feared would disenfranchise them.

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For all the symbolic resonance of her victory, Ms. Buffalo, a public health professional with three master’s degrees, campaigned entirely on local issues — and her win underscored how partisan divisions can be scrambled when the national hot buttons are removed from the conversation.

“Ruth ran not as necessarily a Native American woman, but as a woman in Fargo who wanted to talk about issues that were affecting her community,” said Scott McNeil, executive director of the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party. Mr. Boehning did not respond to a request for comment.

We spoke with Ms. Buffalo on Monday. The interview has been condensed.


More in link

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:26 pm 
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Ex-Obama Aide Andy Kim Beats GOP Incumbent In NJ House Race

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — Democratic former national security aide to Barack Obama Andy Kim has defeated two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Tom MacArthur in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

Kim upset MacArthur in the hotly contested southern New Jersey district, widening the Democrats’ edge in the House.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/andy ... trict-race


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:32 pm 
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Democrat Mike Levin is apparent winner of California House seat vacated by Darrell Issa: NBC News

Democrat Mike Levin, an environmental attorney, is the apparent winner of California's 49th Congressional District seat being vacated by retiring 10-term GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, according to NBC News.

Levin beat Republican Diane Harkey, a conservative state official who had been running behind in recent polls. She was endorsed in August by President Donald Trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/democra ... -news.html


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:55 pm 
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Natesilver remarks, "The arguments that it ISN’T a blue wave are dumb. Can we end the chat now and get lunch?"


Yes, It Was A Blue Wave
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ye ... blue-wave/

The chat continued in spite of his remark. A few of the posts:

Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst: "It was, by any historical standard, a blue wave. Democrats look like they’re going to pick up around 38 House seats, which would be the third-biggest gain by any party in 40 years (after Republicans in 2010 and 1994). The Senate moved in the opposite direction, but not by much, and it was a very difficult map for Democrats anyway."

"Dave Wasserman thinks continued vote-counting in California should bring Democrats to well over 7 points. That would be the third-highest popular vote margin of any election since 1992 (behind Democrats in 2006 and 2008)."

Sarahf: "Here’s a thought. There was a blue wave — but it was fueled by Democratic moderates. Is that accurate? Was there perhaps some disappointment among Democrats who didn’t see as big of a progressive change as they’d hoped?"

Nate Silver: "Here's one last way to look at it. In the first two years with Obama as party leader, Republicans gained a net of +43 House seats (-21 2008, +1 special elections, +63 2010) In the first two years with Trump, Dems are on pace for +45 (+6 2016, +1 special elections, +38 2018)."


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:57 pm 
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The Blue Wave enters Texas. :)

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:41 am 
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Not an article to see, a CNN article to scoff at before ignoring it:

Bill Nelson needs a miracle in Florida. It likely won't come.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/15/politics ... index.html

Quote:
In terms of pure votes, it doesn't look any better for Nelson. The average recount from 2000 to 2015 shifted the result by 282 votes. You don't need to be a math wizard to know that 282 is considerably less than 12,000. The maximum change in the margin in any recount from 2000 to 2015 was 1,247 votes. That is far less than the change in the margin Nelson needs to overtake Scott.


What are pure votes, I know of no such measure. "You don't need to be a math wizard to know ... ," is confusing, it would have been better stated as 'you need to not be a math wizard, and the author is not one either to know ...'

What the author did was compare average recounts totals from 2000 to 2015 and found it to be 282 votes without applying the base rate which in this case could be recounts from where, places with how large a population, with how large a voting population. Would 282 votes having changed hands during a recount in Wyoming with fraction of a million population apply to Florida with a many million population.

A math wizard would know that this one is a difficult one to calculate what the base should be, and difficult to apply as well. And for what purpose. This is not an analysis which in any case could predict the outcome of this recount.


A math wizard is going to say count the votes, there's no bit of statistical bull ... . :| I've made the point.


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