The New Solar Thread

[ZoWie]

Solar activity remains high. We won't get the data for a while, but it sure looks like a cycle peak to me.

Latest is that a sunspot group with a history of serious flaring has rotated into the magnetic danger zone near the west limb of the sun. (West is east and east is west, and never the twain shall meet on solar observation.) This means that even a small flare causes a big radiation storm on Earth. I don't talk about radiation storms much, because they're so rare. They cause the real havoc when they happen. That's when satellites get knocked out and terrestrial power stations explode.

We've actually been having very minor radiation storms for about a week now, and everyone's worst case scenario was a flare in the period that we're in the center of right at the moment. Well, we got one. Nice X class, big blowout of protons and all that. Moving protons are like electricity. Big doodoo if the magnetic lines are in the danger zone.

The radiation storm that we've been in all week didn't get any bigger. These are relativistic protons, they get to Earth in a matter of minutes, but nothing happened to make it any worse than it already was, and it's still way too weak to cause that kind of trouble.

In simple language, we got very lucky.

[ZoWie]

Right now, it's what we don't see more than what we see that suggests solar maximum is near.

We don't have much in the way of resources to observe the solar poles. Most of the sunspot type activity comes in two belts equidistant from the solar equator, and that gets all the attention. It's one sign that we're at or near solar max when we start seeing evidence that eruptions took place in other places. Indeed, a major coronal mass ejection just happened at the solar south pole. Right at the pole. Don't think I've ever seen one of those, but I am told that we get a few of them every solar max. No numbers... we don't take data from there.

Polar CMEs blow stright up and down (relatively speaking) from the solar system, so only a few comets with wildly eccentric orbits are in danger.

There has been evidence of a Carrington size sunspot group on the far side of the sun, but it's visible mostly from Mars and we only have one rather small and blurry telescope there. We'll see what happens in a week or so when it becomes visible on this side. Then we can see magnetic complexity, and it's magnetic lines breaking and reconnecting that make most of the explosions when they shed excess energy as potential differences. Presumably it will have blown most of its cookies by then.

[ZoWie]

The Big Sunspot that the spacecraft photographed on Mars has finally rotated to our side of the sun. It's far less magnetically complex than Dr. Carrington's famous sunspot group that named the event that made telegraph offices catch fire, but it's certainly just about as big. We'll have to see what it does. Just as it came to be visible, it cranked off two major X class flares in one day, causing serious radio blackouts.

[ZoWie]

I spoke too soon. The Big Sunspot, currently numbered active region #3590, has cranked off the biggest flare of this cycle, an X6.3. This came a day or so after two smaller ones that were no slouches either. Its magnetic complexity still doesn't come close to Carrington's famous drawing (telescope cameras weren't invented yet, let alone solar orbiters in interplanetary space). The flares did not produce the kind of CME or proton events that add in phase and cause all hell to break loose down here. Mostly it's just more evidence that we seem to be near the peak.

It is, though, a rare naked-eye spot, but use the usual eye protection or go to the Griffith Observatory and its triple-beam solar telescope and look at the big screen there. It's an ooo-ahhhh for sure.

BTW next month there's a total eclipse if you're lucky. We're not. We never are. Closest we ever got was an annular eclipse, and it rained for that one.

[ZoWie]

Some confusion about the massive AT&T outage taking place in the same time frame as the big solar flares. There is no causal link. AT&T has long since fessed up that someone over there loaded the wrong code.

With that said, Region 3590 is gaining magnetic complexity, and looking more like one of Dr. Carrington's drawings every day.

[ZoWie]

Nothing new, region 3590 continues to increase magnetic complexity as it transits the solar disk. The optical picture isn't super impressive but the magnetic fields are downright ominous. It's still good for several high M class flares a day. Hopefully it'll wait until the region has rotated farther around before doing another X class fart, which is only a matter of time.

[ZoWie]

Big flare going right this second, good thing I didn't have the radio on because it's nuked HF propagation over the US. (A recent tune-in here was all noise and crud, most of it being other people's computer gear.) It seems to be topping out in the M range but of course given its position (almost certainly in region 3590) anything it does will be geoeffective. We'll have to see if it makes a CME worth caring about.

[ZoWie]

Well, well, well. The flare that started about this time yesterday took something like 18 hours to die down. You understand, of course, that a couple of hours is way more typical. This is practically unheard of. There seem to be no other effects coming, but we are assured that more huge active regions are about to rotate into geoeffective position.

[ZoWie]

We got the CME, its effect is still in progress now, but it's pretty weak. And with that, we bid aloha to region 3590, which has gone over the hill.

We got really lucky.

[ZoWie]

VERY interesting auroral event in the Northern Hemisphere last night. Some of the photos are awesome. The CME that caused it was from a filament eruption and/or the last gasp of Region 3590 as it rotated out of position, and the result was all out of proportion.

My guess is that the time of year had everything to do with it. Around the equinoxes you get a lot more auroral bang for the buck.

[ZoWie]

Well, I see we made it for almost a month with no notable major events, but that's over now.

Two large sunspot groups flared simultaneously. This happens. It hasn't happened in quite a while, but it happens. They develop a magnetic connection, something gets a bit out of whack and everything blows at once.

Radio propagation went out the exact moment we saw the flares here. The whole event only made it to X1 on the x-ray scale, but the placement right smack dab in the middle of the solar surface facing Earth was such that the effect was quite striking. It seems to have set off, or at least facilitated, a whole raft of smaller M-class flares. Hours later, radio propagation is still in a totally disturbed state. Usually the dropout is more transient, but RF absorption plots still show a strong outage over the Pacific Ocean.

The situation is further complicated by the slower-moving protons making their somewhat delayed appearance. We are now also in a solar radiation storm over both polar regions. This will have the usual harmful effects on polar orbiting spacecraft and high-latitude propagation. If things get too out of hand, the air transit system may have to start canceling polar route flights between the US and places like Europe and Asia. This happened once last year.

In a couple of days we can expect some decent aurora. It had already started due to other events, now it should get stronger.

We can also expect days of instability and general equinoctial fun and games.

Had this happened during the upcoming April 8 eclipse, we'd have had a real show. At a minimum, the corona would have been awesome. Stuff like this used to start wars.... or end them.

[ZoWie]

Well, well, well. We have a severe geomagnetic storm and a major polar cap event. The Kp index measures instability in the magnetic field, and it goes from zero (nothing's happening) to 9 (put on those foil hats and cancel any plans you had for a long flight). It was forecast to get to maybe 5 or 6 today, noteworthy but mostly for geeks.

This morning, it briefly reached 8+. Here's the warning they put out:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08
Serial Number: 30
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 24 1629 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Mar 24 1628 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

Fortunately, this was a sudden shock passage, and it seems to have died down since. These events usually last several days, however, and they can get worse before it's all-clear. Those who are really into this stuff might want to watch this link for a few days:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aler ... d-warnings

[ZoWie]

Speaking of degraded GPS, the GPS in my cell phone has me walking all around the neighborhood, when all I'm doing is sitting at a computer. It changes by 100 feet every few seconds.

[ZoWie]

Sunspots get blamed for a lot of things, but it didn't cause Max Verstappen to NOT win the Australian Grand Prix. His left rear brake jammed, caught fire, and then exploded, forcing him to leave the race. The Ferrari driver who won had just had his appendix out. He hadn't worked out or even trained for several weeks.

I consider it an early Easter miracle. Thank you, Higher Power.

[ZoWie]

Officially the largest geomagnetic disturbance in 7 years.

[rainwater]

...gosh zowie all ive got is Orion out my door....which is good.

[ZoWie]

Here's what happened... the geomagnetic field jumped all over the place and everyone predicted one of those historic events where giant transformers at power stations explode and every comm satellite goes off-station. Instead, the field's displacement, as represented by a mathematical vector called Bz, turned sharply north and stayed there. No one expected that. A north Bz is a quiet Bz. It doesn't react to particle streams from the sun the way a south Bz does.

No aurora, no nothing. Mostly the total loss of all polar radio communication, which is still in progress. Down here, just another day. No aurora, and the lunar eclipse wasn't anything great, and obscured by clouds anyway. Next up is the total solar eclipse in two weeks if you're lucky. (We never are, and won't be this time either.)