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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:02 pm 
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Going in we have an A+ quality poll, Monmouth University

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... pa_031218/

It suggests we might enjoy the returns as they come in. LAMB (D) 51% SACCONE (R) 45%



538 has a feature article about it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ev ... -election/

It has a short polling average which included the Monmouth University poll, LAMB (D) 47% SACCONE (R) 45%

Mar. 8–11 Monmouth University A+ 51% 45%
Mar. 6–8 RABA Research ------C+ 48 44
Mar. 1–5 Gravis Marketing B- 42 45
Mar. 1–3 Emerson College B 48 45
Average ------------------- 47 45


And the last thing I would add before the results begin to come it is the photo of Lamb and Saccone that the news sources have been using the last few days, something like this:

Image

Shows an older fellow on the left, who looks something like a sheep, next to a younger clean cut groomed fellow on the right, who looks something like a Republican.

And the then to complicate the matter in the articles they invariably talk about the Democrat Lamb first, then talk about the Republican Saccone second. Left to right, first to second.

That creates a visual impression which is not at all correct. The Democrat Lamb is the younger clean cut groomed fellow on the right, who looks something like a Republican. The Republican Saccone is the older fellow on the left, who looks something like a sheep.

:|


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:59 pm 
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Here's where I'm going to watch the returns:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ction.html

The polls close at 8PM Eastern time. Now.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:19 pm 
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The New York Times is saying, "Our best guess is that Mr. Lamb has a small advantage, but the race is very close."

They are currently projecting Lamb by 0.3%.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:29 pm 
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Now they've increased that to currently projecting Lamb by 0.6%. And it's been holding steady for quite a while.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:39 pm 
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Now the New York Times has pulled their vote predictor off line. :|

Lamb is still leading with 51.5% to Saccone 47.9%


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:59 pm 
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It's very close 0.5% now, Lamb leading, most of the votes are in. I think there will be a recount.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:21 pm 
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Lamb's still leading by 0.4% and the number of outstanding votes is getting mighty thin.

He's leading by 918 votes at the moment and Drew Miller the Libertarian has 1,280 votes.

Thank you Drew Miller. :D


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:43 pm 
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Lamb is leading by 700 votes. There are 11 precincts which have not reported, 2 of them will probably go for Lamb, 9 for Saccone. They're small, not many votes.

CBS and NYTimes won't call it. I think Lamb will win. :)


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:14 pm 
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They just found a bunch of votes, a favorable sudden shift. It was down to there being only two precincts to go and Lamb was only leading by about 95 votes.

There are still two precincts to go and Lamb suddenly leads by 0.4 percentage points, or 847 votes.

With a recount ahead of us and all the coverage in the press ... . Day's of hang time to discuss all the failings of Trump for his party.

I think he's going to win, but win or lose these results are ideal for our party going forward. :D


Win or lose Lamb would only see two or three months in the House before they adjourn for reelection time. With the new maps coming in Lamb's district is if anything growing more red.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ering.html


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:41 pm 
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I saw a Fox headline: In Pennsylvania special election, the silence of Democrat Conor Lamb speaks volumes to Trump voters

:rofl:


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:39 am 
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Pennsylvania special election between Rick Saccone and Conor Lamb too close to call

Quote:
In a district President Trump won by 20 points just over a year ago, the race to replace Rep. Tim Murphy — who resigned last fall over a sex scandal — was too close to call with 99% reporting. Results just before midnight had Democrat Conor Lamb ahead by just under 1,000 votes.

"We’re still fighting the fight it’s not over yet we’re going to fight all the way into the end. You know I never give up," Republican Rick Saccone told his supporters before sending them home from his election night party so they could go to work Wednesday.

"This is not going to be decided tonight," Adam Bonin, a Pennsylvania-based lawyer who specializes in political law told USA TODAY. "It’s unusual for a race with this many votes in it to be this close, but it happens."

"Unofficial counts like these tend to hold up but it’s when the election boards sit down and calmly go machine by machine to calmly check their arithmetic" that the race will actually be certified, Bonin said. He added that in a race this close it may remain open until next Tuesday when military and overseas ballots are counted. ........

saying its too close to call until they calmly check machine by machine calmly for their arithmetic

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:01 am 
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Pennsylvania special election between Rick Saccone and Conor Lamb too close to call


saying its too close to call until they calmly check machine by machine calmly for their arithmetic


I hope they keep reports like that coming in the news for days, weeks, a couple of months. I hope they machine by machine calmly analysis it to death.

"We’re still fighting the fight it’s not over yet we’re going to fight all the way into the end. You know I never give up," Republican Rick Saccone told his supporters before sending them home from his election night party so they could go to work Wednesday."

Meanwhile I think Lamb won. And with this kind of stuff we're winning even more. :lol:


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