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PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:02 pm 
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Voting Rights Roundup: Four states vote on redistricting reforms in November. Here's how they work

● Redistricting Reform: Redistricting reform will be on the ballot in four states this November, following the Missouri Supreme Court’s decision not to hear a GOP-backed appeal seeking to block a state legislative redistricting reform from going before voters. Below, we'll detail just what each proposal entails and its implication for each state.

Colorado (Amendment Y & Amendment Z)

Earlier this year, Colorado's Republican-run state Senate and Democratic-majority state House unanimously referred two state constitutional amendments to the ballot for voter approval: Amendment Y would create a congressional redistricting commission, and Amendment Z would do the same for the state legislature. Currently, congressional redistricting is handled like typical legislation, while legislative redistricting is carried out by a commission where the governor can determine which party effectively holds the majority.​

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/9 ... -they-work


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:12 pm 
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Voter Enthusiasm at Record High in Nationalized Midterm Environment

With less than six weeks to go before the elections for Congress, voter enthusiasm is at its highest level during any midterm in more than two decades. And a record share of registered voters – 72% – say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote.

Opinions about Donald Trump also continue to be an important consideration for voters. A 60% majority views their midterm vote as an expression of opposition or support toward Trump – with far more saying their midterm vote will be “against” Trump (37%) than “for” him (23%).

http://www.people-press.org/2018/09/26/ ... vironment/


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:41 am 
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A ‘blue wave’ in red Kansas? Democrats churn, Republicans resist as midterms near

On a recent night inside Johnson County’s Democratic headquarters, a storefront in a strip shopping center at 75th Street and Antioch Road, its walls covered in Obama, Clinton and other campaign posters, volunteer Pat McGarry eyes the name on his laptop’s call list.


All around him, some 15 volunteers are making easier calls. The room buzzes with their voices. They’re phoning registered Democrats — deemed “persuadables,” because they sometimes vote, but not always — and unaffiliated voters, urging them to turn out at the polls Nov. 6 to help turn Republican red Kansas toward Democrat blue.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politic ... 27435.html


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:42 am 
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Clean Missouri will be on November ballot after high court refuses to hear challenge

Missouri voters will get to choose whether the state adopts a slate of ethics and redistricting reforms in November after an effort to toss the initiative petition from the ballot hit a dead end Monday.

Opponents of the initiative, called Clean Missouri, or Amendment 1, sued to have the issue removed from Missouri’s November ballot. They were successful at the trial court level, but an appellate court in Kansas City upheld Clean Missouri last week.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politic ... 58240.html


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:50 pm 
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Daily Kos Elections Portal 2018

https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Tool Predicts Big Midterm Win For House Democrats

The model predicts a different outcome for the Senate—where Republicans are likely to pick up an additional two Senate seats and preserve their majority.

“The midterm election’s outcome will play a major role in policy making and the politics leading up to the presidential election of 2020,” says James Campbell, professor of political science at the University at Buffalo and creator of the Seats-in-Trouble model.

https://www.futurity.org/midterm-electi ... l-1857252/


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:04 pm 
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If traitors and rapists can win seats, i dont know what we are even doing.

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"Corporate Democrat" phrase created at the same place "Angry Mob" was...People keep falling for rightwing talking points. How sad.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:35 pm 
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Democrats see chance to flip state Senate in November

WOODBURY - Nassau Democrats are rallying in an effort to flip the state Senate out of Republican control.

The Democrats say they are hoping anti-Trump animus will lead to a blue wave at the ballot box in November.

http://longisland.news12.com/story/3920 ... n-november


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:44 pm 
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Democrats Could Swing At Least Two NC Congressional Districts

Republicans surely will hold onto their majority of North Carolina's 13-seat congressional delegation this fall but Democrats believe they can swing two, if not three, districts.

The candidates battling for the 9th District, which runs from the southeast Charlotte suburbs, along the South Carolina border, to Fayetteville, have already raised a total of $3.5 million, the most of any race in the state, according to the Center for Responsive Politics website, opensecrets.org.

http://www.wunc.org/post/democrats-coul ... s#stream/0


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:16 pm 
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Imagine not having to see or hear from this piece of shit again


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"Corporate Democrat" phrase created at the same place "Angry Mob" was...People keep falling for rightwing talking points. How sad.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:30 am 
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Big Bend stays the course: Goodman easily survives recall election spurred by fire department concerns

BIG BEND - In a recall election brought on by concerns over the future of the village's fire department, first-term incumbent Jeff Goodman solidly defeated challenger Trenton Sobczak on Tuesday.

Goodman received 222 votes, or 60 percent, to Sobczak's 150 votes, according to unofficial totals posted by the village clerk Tuesday night. The vote total represented a turnout of roughly 45 percent, according to estimated figures by Clerk Brad Calder.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/communit ... 505291002/


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:32 am 
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Trempealeau County DA ousted in recall election

Trempealeau County District Attorney Taavi McMahon will not finish his current term.

John Sacia, McMahon’s former assistant, won 2,244 to 450 Tuesday in the Democratic primary for a recall election.

http://www.leadertelegram.com/News/Fron ... d-div.html


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:13 pm 
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2018 Midterm Elections Countdown

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:51 pm 
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Early voting for many states and many people will be starting sooner than that, BTW.

Incidentally, if you mail in an absentee ballot, you may have already received that at this point, or may be getting it, soon.

Sorry to let out my inner pedagogue, but allow me one other recommendation: start researching ballot amendments on your ballot NOW. They may sound very confusing when you sit down and read them for the first time and it may not be clear what they mean. In some cases, that was tactical. In other cases, they were just poorly written.

The League of Women Voters does good - nonpartisan, but direct - analysis of these amendments, I will suggest their web site.

Know who's behind these ballot initiatives - the other thing research may sometimes show you is, not who you think. They may NOT be "grassroots" "citizen-sponsored" after all.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:03 am 
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Mike Siegel - Every Texan Deserves to Retire With Dignity

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:05 am 
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Nate McMurray - He Lied

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


Last edited by ap215 on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 am 
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Randy Bruce - Trump

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com



Andrew Gillum - Protection

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com



Kara Eastman - A Nebraska Mom Fighting for You: The Kara Eastman Story

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


J.D. Scholten - Iowa All-Star: The Story of J.D. Scholten

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:09 pm 
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Mayoral Charter Revision Commission Puts Three Questions on November Ballot

After months of meetings and deliberations, thousands of suggestions and dozens of hours of public hearings, the charter revision commission created by Mayor Bill de Blasio voted to put three broad questions on the ballot in November. If approved by voters, the proposals would significantly reduce campaign contribution limits in city elections, create a new agency to civically engage the public, and apply term limits and appointment reforms to community boards.

De Blasio created the commission to review the city charter with an eye on reducing the impact of wealthy donors and special interests in electoral campaigns and drawing more New Yorkers to participate in elections and civic life. The 13-member commission largely stuck by that mandate, though it did consider and reject other significant proposals including independent redistricting of City Council districts and instant runoff voting, also known as ranked choice voting, which the mayor does not support. (A separate City Council-created charter revision commission is also beginning public hearings this month and could possibly take up the issues left unresolved by the mayoral commission. It will recommend ballot questions in 2019.)

http://www.gothamgazette.com/city/7912- ... hoice=side


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:38 pm 
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:11 pm 
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Inside The Fight To Flip Texas From Red To Blue

As Texas prepares for the midterm elections in November, a growing effort is underway to encourage a surge of Democratic voters in the Republican-dominated state. Much of this movement’s energy centers on the state’s large Latino population.

Texas has one of the lowest voter participation rates in the country. Latinos, who lean Democratic in Texas, have tended to stay away from the polls in larger percentages than white voters. Nearly 40 percent of the state population is Hispanic, and this demographic could become a majority as early as 2022, according to projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/te ... 70d04c4cdd


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:16 pm 
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Indicted Congressman Duncan Hunter has released a racist, fear-mongering campaign ad against his Democratic opponent Ammar Campa-Najjar. In the ad, future convict Duncan Hunter claims:

1. Ammar Campa-Najjar is working to infiltrate Congress.
Fact: He's not working to infiltrate Congress because "infiltrate" means to "enter or gain access to (an organization, place, etc.) surreptitiously and gradually, especially in order to acquire secret information." He's a candidate for Congress which means he's made himself known publicly and is not hiding the fact he wants to be a Congressman.

2. He's used three different names to hide his name to terrorism.
Fact: He recently legally changed his name to Campa-Najjar which he has used professionally for years.

3. His grandfather masterminded the '72 Olympic massacre and his father said they deserved to die.
Fact: He doesn't deny what his grandfather did but points out his grandfather died 16 years before he was born and he condemns the attack. Also, his father left him and his mother when he was a child and he's had little no contact with his father.

4. He's a Palestinian, Mexican, millennial Democrat.
Fact: He, like most Americans, is of mixed heritage and because of his age he is a millennial and he's a Democrat. Attacking a person's heritage is purely racist.

5. He's being supported by CAIR and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Fact: CAIR (Council on Islamic-American Relations) doesn't endorse candidates but a PAC called CAIR-CA has picking him over Hunter. Note: Campa-Najjar is a Christian, not a Muslim.

There is no proof by the Hunter campaign the Muslim Brotherhood support him. This is fear-mongering.

6. He's a security risk.
Fact: The claim is made by Joseph John who was a co-founder of the Combat Veterans for Congress which is a conservative PAC whose purpose is "... to endorse fiscally conservative Combat Veterans For Congress who would work to rein in the out of control spending by irresponsible members of Congress, will protect the freedoms provided to American citizens in the US Bill of Rights and the US Constitution, and Combat Veterans who previously demonstrated their willingness to “Go Into Harm’s Way” to protect and defend teammates engaged in combat. "

In the ad, Joseph John provides no support or proof that Ammar Campa-Najjar is a security risk. In fact, he served in the Obama White House and administration and given a security clearance by the Secret Service who did a thorough background check.

Here's the future convict Duncan Hunter's ad:
www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


Here's an article by KPBS (San Diego) concerning the charges made by the future convict Duncan Hunter. KPBS

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:37 pm 
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Looks like the future convict Duncan Hunter (r) isn't a sure bet to win his election in Eastern San Diego County. Two recent polls shows he's leading his opponent by 1 or 2 points.

Tulchin Research puts Hunter ahead 45% to 44% of likely voters. Poll taken Sept 29 - Oct 1.

UC Berkeley puts Hunter ahead 49% to 47% of likely voters. Poll taken Sept 16 - 23.

538

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:42 pm 
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Looks like the future convict Duncan Hunter (r) isn't a sure bet to win his election in Eastern San Diego County. Two recent polls shows he's leading his opponent by 1 or 2 points.

Tulchin Research puts Hunter ahead 45% to 44% of likely voters. Poll taken Sept 29 - Oct 1.

UC Berkeley puts Hunter ahead 49% to 47% of likely voters. Poll taken Sept 16 - 23.

538


Nate says with wave elections it's typical for the polls to understate the size of the wave, and outcome errors between polling and results at the ballot box tend to shift towards the side riding the wave.

That said, I've never seen a polling outfit named Tulchin Research. So I don't know if a 1% spread is the basis.

With a name like Tulichin I can only see two possibilities.

It's made in the Ukraine, in Vinnytsia Oblast to be specific. Or it's a Bernie bot, the possibility I currently favor.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:23 am 
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Nate says with wave elections it's typical for the polls to understate the size of the wave, and outcome errors between polling and results at the ballot box tend to shift towards the side riding the wave.

That said, I've never seen a polling outfit named Tulchin Research. So I don't know if a 1% spread is the basis.

With a name like Tulichin I can only see two possibilities.

It's made in the Ukraine, in Vinnytsia Oblast to be specific. Or it's a Bernie bot, the possibility I currently favor.

Tulchin Research, according to Ballotpedia, is a polling and strategic consulting firm that works for Democratic candidates. There may be a bias in their poll but the poll from UC Berkeley shows may be more acceptable as being unbiased. Of course, conservatives will say UC Berkeley is a haven for liberals and therefore biased.

Of course, you can click on the Tulchin Research and UC Berkeley polls and read the questions and their methodology to determine how fair the polls were.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:58 am 
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Tulchin Research, according to Ballotpedia, is a polling and strategic consulting firm that works for Democratic candidates. There may be a bias in their poll but the poll from UC Berkeley shows may be more acceptable as being unbiased. Of course, conservatives will say UC Berkeley is a haven for liberals and therefore biased.

Of course, you can click on the Tulchin Research and UC Berkeley polls and read the questions and their methodology to determine how fair the polls were.


One of the nice things about real University polls is found in their write ups. The UC Berkeley poll is a real University Poll. A Professor and students, that kind of thing, it's purpose is to be instructional for people who are studying polling.

In that poll I found this, it's a question which allows one to compare the poll with other polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

39%Approve strongly
15%Approve somewhat
4%Disapprove somewhat
42%Disapprove strongly

That translates to 54% approve, 46% disapprove. It's a bright red district, or it indicates a problem with the polls sample. That is too monochrome, it's most likely to be a combination of both. If I can find out how bright red that district is, I could compare that with this polls measurement of that factor and get an idea of the amount that the sample was off.

I can ask you, do you perceive that district to be 54% Republican, 46% Democratic insofar as how they vote?

I noticed that it used to be a 60-40 district after it had been a 65-35. It appears to be a district which has been shifting left faster than it's demographic trend has been shifting. Suggests a retirement age sub-population might be a fairly major factor and influence there.

The last time I was there I didn't have a stingray bike, instead I had what was probably the best bike I've ever had, an English three speed Huffy boys bike. I hated it, it wasn't a stingray. I never did get a stingray but I eventually did realize it was an awful bike if one factors in design and efficiencies. I liked the ocean beach and the zoo.

:? Maybe it was an Irish three speed.

They voted for Trump 54.6% to Clinton 39.6%, that is R +15, but 6% voted for Other. The cook PVI is R +11. If one assumes 2% of that other vote was for weird to the far right and 4% of that was for weird to the far left then it squares and the sample looks good.

Based on what I've seen I'd say Hunter is going to lose by 5% or more. Might even see a drubbing.

:)


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