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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:13 pm 
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Activists Cry Foul As Texas Officials Say 95,000 Non-Citizens On Voter Rolls

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas elections officials said Friday that they have identified roughly 95,000 non-U.S. citizens on voter rolls going back to 1996, raising alarms among voting rights activists who called the numbers suspect and feared new efforts to tighten access to the ballot box.

The state has been one of the nation’s biggest voting rights battlegrounds in recent years and drawn attention over severe punishments in voter fraud cases. In 2017, a Fort Worth jury sentenced a Mexican national who has lived in the U.S. since she was a baby to eight years in prison for illegal voting, after which she faces deportation.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/acti ... oter-rolls


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:57 pm 
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Once they screened that 95,000 Non-Citizen for those who had voted at least once the article say the number becomes 58 thousand and the time frame for that is 20 years.

Using a normal distribution to resolve the problem of a data set being indexed with "are believed to have voted in at least one Texas election," on can tackle reducing that 58,000 Non-Citizen votes over 20 years to a per election year number. I would plug in an estimated distribution correction factor of 1.4 and use 10 elections over 20 years to divide it by. The number is 8120.

8129 alleged Non-Citizen votes cast per election. I'm adding alleged to that because only 33 or so of those cases have stood the test of being challenged. I bet most of them would not withstand a challenge, the cases of mistaken identity are included, they need to be excluded or any analysis is deluded.

So this is worst case, 8129. "Nearly 16 million people in Texas are registered to vote." That's five hundredths of one percent.

If the cases which survived a challenge were used I bet it would reduce that down to five ten thousands of one percent. I'm guessing that only one a hundred of those computer flagged cases would survive a challenge.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:11 pm 
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Aaaaaaand .... Twitler waded in this morning to his favorite swamp, natch.

Twitler thwomped:
58,000 non-citizens voted in Texas, with 95,000 non-citizens registered to vote. These numbers are just the tip of the iceberg. All over the country, especially in California, voter fraud is rampant. Must be stopped. Strong voter ID!

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/reel ... on-twitter

Trump’s tweet refers to numbers released by the office of the Texas Secretary of State, which recently sent a list to local election officials across the state of 95,000 registered voters who at one point indicated in some way that they were not citizens — such as when they obtained a driver’s license.

The Secretary of State’s office was clear that the list should not be considered proof of widespread illegal voting.

“All records submitted through this process will need to be treated as WEAK matches, meaning that the county may choose to investigate the voter, pursuant to Section 16.033, Election Code, or take no action on the voter record if the voter registrar determines that there is no reason to believe the voter is ineligible,” Director of Elections Keith Ingraham wrote.

The Texas Tribune, two days ago, wrote a “pre-buttal” of sorts for the inevitable, inaccurate claims of widespread illegal voting.

“Of those 95,000, 58,000 individuals cast a ballot in one or more elections from 1996 to 2018,” the paper tweeted on Jan. 25. “That is a 22 year time period. And that does not mean the state is saying 58,000 non-citizens voted.”

The accompanying article read: “It’s unclear exactly how many of those individuals are not actually U.S. citizens and whether that number will be available in the future.”

[snip][end]

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