EARTH....

[ZoWie]

Yes, I've seen the same forecasts. You describe the situation perfectly. It's supposed to change soon, and common sense would also favor that conclusion.

The pattern responsible is a plain old-fashioned Omega block that's also kept LA unusually cold and gloomy and caused floods in some of the usual places. The historic behavior of such patterns favors a change sooner rather than later.

[Number6]

Why the San Andreas fault hasn't caused an earthquake yet? It appears there is a major earthquake every 180 years, give or take 40 years, and it's been 300 years since the last one. So what's preventing the earthquake? A new study suggest that the lower level of water in Lake Cahuilla is the reason. Less water means less weight on the fault.

The team created a computer model that simulated how a full lake affected the fault. They found high water levels in Lake Cahuilla prompted activity along the fault in two aspects. First, the weight of the lake water caused the crust beneath it to bend, unlocking the plates so they don’t touch as much. The lake water also seeped into the cracks and pores in Earth’s crust beneath it, increasing the fluid pressure inside the fault and further unclasping the plates.

Think of the scenario like playing a game of air hockey, said Hill. Without air, the puck does not slide easily across the table, much like when frictional forces hold two stuck tectonic plates together. When air (or water from the lake) is added, it helps relieve tension and makes it easier for the two to slip past one another.

“The correlation between the stressing rate from lake loading … and the observed earthquake likelihood is astounding,” wrote Götz Bokelmann, a geophysicist at the University of Vienna who was not involved in the study, in an email. “If this holds up, then this will be quite important.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... n-andreas/

[ZoWie]

The air quality from the Canadian fires has reached major emergency levels in much of the eastern US. The smoke reaches clear down to DC, which had some of the worst air in the world yesterday. NYC and Boston cancelled flights and told residents to wear N95 masks outdoors. Someone said that Syracuse declared a major emergency, but I have no confirmation on that.

In the short term, the situation is expected to improve as the omega block clears, but in the long term it is clear that we are seeing the future if we don't get serious about the climate. For one thing, this is definitely going to be an El Nino year. That is confirmed. We can expect the typical scenario, which can be unpleasant in the extreme for those who are unlucky and wind up in the worst affected areas. It's already cost us a bundle in LA, where the rain broke just about everything.

I know, there's a war on, and everything's already too expensive, and all that, but we're talking human extinction here if something doesn't change.

[Motor City]

Flooding from dam break strands hundreds and leaves thousands with no drinking water in Ukraine

...The collapse of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam and emptying of its reservoir on the Dnieper River added to the misery the region has suffered for more than a year from artillery and missile attacks.

With humanitarian and ecological disasters still unfolding, it’s already clear that tens of thousands of people have been deprived of drinking water, many are homeless, crops are ruined, land mines have been displaced, and the stage is set for long-term electricity shortages.

Some residents of Russia-occupied areas hit by high water complained that help was slow in arriving, with some stranded on roofs and streets passable only by boat in scenes more like natural disasters than wars. Others refused to leave.....

.....The high water could wash away this season’s crops, while the depleted Kakhovka reservoir would deny adequate irrigation for years. The reservoir’s loss also complicates any efforts to rebuild and restart the destroyed hydroelectric power station and ensure cooling water for any future attempts to restart the shut-down Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.....

[ap215]

6.2 magnitude earthquake shakes Japanese island Hokkaido

June 11 (UPI) -- The Japanese island of Hokkaido was rattled by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake on Sunday.

Japan's Meteorological Agency recorded that the earthquake was felt at about 6:54 p.m. and it measured about 85 miles deep in the country's northernmost island. It originated off the coast of Urakawa. Long-period ground motion persisted throughout the island in the Ishikari, Shiribeshi, Iburi, Hidaka and Tokachi regions.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... do/1539813

[ap215]

After stormy weekend, severe weather threat continues for North Texas

NORTH TEXAS (CBSNewsTexas.com) -- The threat of severe weather continues Monday for North Texas after parts of the region saw large hail and damaging winds over the weekend.

A stalled frontal boundary will keep our temperatures a bit cooler this afternoon, with highs near 90 in DFW before the storms arrive. North of the front, along the Red River, temperatures will only reach the low 80s.

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/nort ... continues/

[ZoWie]

It's official. The three year La Nina went straight into an official El Nino, which is remarkable but which has also followed all previous three year La Ninas, at least two of which were recent and probably linked to climate change.

They'll keep track of the numbers here. It's all based on observation, not climate change debate.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... enso.shtml

[ap215]

Golf ball size hail, flooding spotted in north Georgia

ATLANTA — Much of metro Atlanta and north Georgia was under a Level 2 "Slight" risk for severe weather Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, with parts of west Georgia under the Level 3 "Enhanced" risk.

That resulted in a tornado watch already issued for some of that region Wednesday afternoon, for counties such as Heard, Meriwether and Troup in the broader Atlanta viewing area. The tornado watch was originally in effect until 7 p.m., but was expired just after 5:30 p.m.

https://www.11alive.com/article/weather ... dcc3cc889e

[ap215]

Worker struck by lightning in Woodbridge Township, NJ revived by hero officer

WOODBRIDGE TWP., New Jersey (WABC) -- A public works employee is lucky to be alive thanks to the quick actions of a police officer after the worker was struck by lightning in Woodbridge Township, New Jersey.

It happened at Iselin Middle School on Panther Road in Iselin just before 12:30 p.m. Wednesday, as weather radar images showed thunderstorms popping up in the area.

https://abc7ny.com/lightning-strike-thu ... /13381790/

[Number6]

Millions of crickets invade Elko, NV.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-65933964

[ap215]

6-year-old boy dies after battling lightning-related injuries in Texas

A 6-year-old boy died in Texas on Friday following a lengthy battle with injuries suffered from a lightning strike last month.

Grayson Boggs, of Valley Mills, Texas, was struck by lightning when he, his brother and his late father were walking home from the bus stop in May. Grayson sustained permanent brain damage and was in a coma following the strike. According to KWTX, he stayed in the intensive care unit for several weeks. He was taken off a ventilator this week.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-w ... as/1543258

[ap215]

A severe storm in southern Brazil has killed 8 people and left 19 others missing

SAO PAULO -- Authorities of the southern Brazil state of Rio Grande do Sul said Saturday that eight people died and 19 others were missing after a winter storm swept through the region.

Gov. Eduardo Leite said that one of those killed was a 4-month-old baby, who died before rescuers were able to get there. Fatalities were registered in seven cities.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... -100166453

[ap215]

Totally dangerous if you ask me leave it to the professionals.

What we know about the tourist submarine that disappeared on an expedition to the Titanic wreck

A massive search unfurled on Monday as authorities probed the North Atlantic for a tourist submarine that went missing over the weekend on an expedition to explore the famous Titanic shipwreck. Here's what we know so far about the submersible craft and what may have happened to it.

What happened?

A five-person crew on a submersible named Titan, owned by OceanGate Expeditions, submerged on a dive to the Titanic wreckage site Sunday morning, and the crew of the Polar Prince research ship lost contact with the sub about an hour and 45 minutes later, the U.S. Coast Guard said Monday afternoon.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/titanic-su ... t-we-know/

[ProfX]

I am hoping the lost sub won't become another thing to see on the bottom of the ocean by people visiting the wreck of the Titanic.

[ZoWie]

Well, the general area of the Titanic wreck is about where it lost communication.

What few details have gotten through the hand wringing over lost billionaires seem to indicate that the sub was not really state of the art. We haven't heard a word about how its communications worked. Radio waves don't go through salt water worth a damn. There's some penetration at extremely low frequencies, but not two miles deep.

In an emergency the sub should have ejected a buoy that would rise to the surface and broadcast an automatic distress call with the last known position. The fact that it didn't does not bode well. There are satellites which can pick these up, even if it's out of terrestrial radio range.

What I know about the level of equipment being used on the sub means that you wouldn't have gotten me to go down in the thing, at any price. Milspec it wasn't.

[ZoWie]

Happy Summer Solstice!

Stonehenge had around 10,000 people for the sunrise. Quite the scene. Video on YouTube, as always. Times Square has the annual yoga class, with around 800 people on red mats all lined up, just getting started as I post this.

LA had one of the first clear sunrises since last fall.

[ZoWie]

Getting back to the missing sub, I keep hearing from the Nooz that they had a way of texting the mother ship until they got too deep. No one says how that worked, or how they got around the laws of physics which attenuate light and short out radio waves in salt water. Sound would get through quite nicely until the sub got deeper, then it wouldn't transit the layers of water well. Banging on the hull at timed intervals is a widely taught signalling mode, as the timing indicates intelligence. In fact the Coast Guard now confirms that banging was heard, but details are scarce and we don't know whether it was human caused. It's a big ocean. It certainly didn't bring the cavalry over the hill in time to save the good guys.

Don't expect much cutting-edge technology from a vessel steered by a $250 over-the-shelf consumer grade game controller.

[ZoWie]

A few nuggets at the USCG presser. The banging was heard by trained personnel aboard a P-3 Orion involved in the search. The plane was likely an ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) asset and would have had sonar buoys, remote hydrophones, and and personnel with good training in how to deploy and operate them.

Not much other info except that the banging was non-random enough to warrant further investigation. They were unable to locate it, and so there are no other facts.

The sub did have an EPIRB (Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon) that it could deploy. It would rise to the surface and transmit on a dedicated frequency to ground or space based receivers. We don't know if they deployed it. Nothing like that has been heard.

It's a very small sub and a very big ocean.

[Number6]

Five people in a submersible are missing and the world news is airing the story continuously while very little reporting is being done on over 300 Pakistani nationals died in a sinking of an overloaded fishing trawler near Greece. Maybe the reason is we're more attuned to a small number of deaths or injuries and have a hard time comprehending 300 people dying.

[ZoWie]

True. Numbers become abstract at some point. I think that's probably 80% of what's happening here.

The wreck that everyone's so hell bent on exploring orginally had 1500 victims. It's essentially a tomb, but apparently that's abstract too.

The other 20% is likely due to the classism of the Nooz, to whom one billionaire is worth 500 refugees any day.

[ProfX]

In all likelihood, the sub is out of oxygen at this point. There are claims people were hearing "banging noises" in the area but there are a lot of things in the ocean that can make that noise. Maybe it was the sub, maybe not.

All I will say is if I were a billionaire who wanted to see the Titanic, I might splurge for something other than a toy sub that runs on a Playstation game controller. Game over in this game of Subnautica doesn't let you respawn.

The CEO is aboard the sub. Karma is a word, given that there were reports that there were previous complaints about all kinds of safety violations. And I'll leave it at that.

[ZoWie]

Originally the banging was said to be at regular intervals, which is a well known technique taught to people who work underwater so that searchers can separate it from random sounds in the ocean, which are many.

The drill is number one DON'T PANIC, number two lay down and rest quietly to save air, number three every hour and half hour bang on the hull for 3 minutes. One of the people on board was a trained deep sea worker. (No, not the captain, he was a clueless CEO type.)

Of course usually the hull is steel, or titanium for most deep dives, but this one is carbon fiber and would not ring as much as thump. The ocean is full of thumps.

Presumably the search jumped on the sound, whatever it was, because it was all they had in what was otherwise an awful lot of three dimensional liquid space to search for a vessel the size of a minivan.

Frankly, in the absence of any other information, I don't know what to make of this reported banging. I don't trust the information channels, so I don't know whether to trust the information.

The facts as we know them right now indicate to me that they haven't a clue where the sub is. It's an awful lot of bandwidth with no signals to put in it, therefore the Nooz reports Situation Normal as if it were a major revelation.

Right now the Nooz is jumping on various stories of bureaucratic snafus and ROVs being sent to the search being delayed for the usual reasons these things happen when other countries have assets that we don't have.

For me the story isn't even about five bozos in a woefully underdesigned submersible any more. THAT is like going into space on a homemade rocket in a capsule designed to save money. For me, it's about how cumbersome anything involving international cooperation in an emergency has gotten. We've got everything except Elon Musk jumping in and mouthing off a la that undersea mine or whatever it was that he got involved in.

[ZoWie]

Coast Guard reports that an ROV that made it all the way to the Titanic wreck area has found a debris field of interest. NFD until a presser at noon LA time. Of course, that area has lots of debris already... it was a big ship... though most of it has become encrusted in whatever the ocean encrusts stuff in and presumably any new stuff would look like, well new stuff.

[ap215]

Bizarre weather day in Colorado

Multiple tornadoes reported in eastern Colorado amid severe weather outbreak

DENVER — A rare severe weather threat is looming over the Denver area and Eastern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the Denver area and portions of Northern Colorado until 8 p.m.

https://www.denver7.com/weather/weather ... o-thursday

[ZoWie]

Intelligent, especially by CNN standards, op-ed on the issue of relative Nooz coverage of 5 rich guys in a cheap sub VS 700 migrants in a leaky boat.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/opinions ... index.html

And the Greek Coast Guard, despite indications that the boat was in distress, did not intervene, blaming the smuggled migrants who they say didn’t want help. Widespread outrage and anguish for the hundreds of souls taking an extraordinary risk in search of a better life, and those who failed them along the way, seems much more justifiable than the frenzy over a small, lost group of hyper-niche tourists, tragic as both circumstances may turn out to be. And yet, while the migrant story is far from being ignored, it’s not receiving the same breathless moment-by-moment updates accorded the lost Titanic hunters.

But human interest, we know, does not at all run proportional to human suffering, and often has little to do with who or what is deserving of significant attention. And the story of a vessel occupied by wealthy curiosity-seekers, lost in the depths of the ocean in its search to find a vessel occupied by wealthy curiosity-seekers lost in the depths of the ocean, has all the component parts of an addictive story: irony, suspense, potential tragedy, potential glory, lifestyles of the rich, aspiration and hubris.

Frankly, in my own too-weird-for-post-modern-media opinion, the Greek disaster is potentially a better movie than anything they've ever made about John Jacob Astor and the Unsinkable British Titanic. Deep down at the dramatic core, the spectacle of the sinking Titanic with its partying fat cats up top and its coal-shoveling workers hidden safely below delivers the same unsettling and instructive story as the Greek disaster, and both are essentially built around the same intellectual core as Fritz Lang's old Metropolis. All three stories are about class struggle, and the tendencies of elites to think they have it all wired until brown stuff hits air handler. The Titanic at least really happened. Oh, the Greek thing really happened too, but I doubt we'll be seeing a movie about it any time soon.

Metropolis is a silent flick with typical early over-the-top acting, but it's still, frankly, a better movie than anything they've ever made about the Titanic, or would ever make about the Greek unnamed tragic vessel.