2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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ap215
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2018 Midterm Elections Thread

Post by ap215 »

Let's put everything about the midterms here predictions analysis candidates etc i'll start.

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE
— On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results as indicating a significant decline in the Democratic lead.

A steady House generic ballot
— On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results as indicating a significant decline in the Democratic lead.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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2018 midterms kick into full gear with primaries in Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho and Oregon

While most of last week’s primaries were tightly clustered in the rust belt, the next batch of primary states stretch from coast to coast, from the Delaware River to the Pacific Ocean.

Here’s what to watch out for in Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho and Oregon.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/0 ... -may-15th/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Katie Porter Survived Domestic Abuse, Only To Have It Used Against Her In Her Campaign

WASHINGTON ― Four years before law professor Katie Porter launched her campaign for Congress, the single mother of three was flossing her teeth in the bathroom of her home in Irvine, California, when her then-husband barged in.

Matthew Hoffman grabbed his wife’s hands, ripped the floss out of them and threw it away, and then punched the wall so hard that he shattered the faceplate on the light switch and knocked the lights out. He would later tell a judge he was angry because his wife had been brushing her teeth too slowly.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ca ... mg00000004" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Picking winners: National Democrats try to winnow the primary field, and not everyone is pleased

LOS ANGELES — Imagine that you’ve never run for elected office. Imagine that you’ve never even considered it; your career, after all, has nothing to do with politics. But then America elects a president who strikes you as so dangerous — so antithetical to your values — that you start thinking about how you can fight back.

You notice that your congressman, who belongs to the same party as the new president, is considered vulnerable. You’re anxious. You’re angry. You’re unwilling to stand idly by. So you decide to make the leap and run against him in the upcoming midterm elections.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23432842/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Georgia GOP gov. candidate wants to round up immigrants in 'deportation bus'

A Republican Georgia state senator running for governor announced the start of his “Deportation Bus Tour” on Tuesday, which he said will consist of rounding up illegal immigrants in a school bus labeled “Murderers, rapists, kidnappers, child molestors, and other criminals on board.” It misspells molesters.

Michael Williams, who was his state’s co-chair for President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, said the tour aims to “shine a light on the dangers of sanctuary cities and the overwhelming problem of illegal immigration.” The bus will make stops in Clarkston, Decatur and Athens, the state’s three sanctuary cities. Sanctuary cities generally limit police compliance with federal immigration authorities.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23435309/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Primary election results: Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ska-oregon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Montgomery Councilman Burkette wins lengthy Senate District 26 race, for now

Montgomery City Councilman David Burkette won the race for Alabama's Senate District 26 seat after a monthslong campaign that was extended by a Democratic runoff.

The councilman will fill the vacancy left by Quinton Ross in the fall when he stepped down to become president of Alabama State University. Burkette defeated Republican candidate Darrell "DJ" Johnson, a political newcomer, who acknowledged the difficult path conservatives have in the district that has historically been Democratic.

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/st ... 607976002/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Kara Eastman has upset Brad Ashford in NE02 race

Image

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

ap215 » Tue May 15, 2018 7:13 pm wrote:Primary election results: Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ska-oregon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting, a Bernie Sanders progressive did win a primary race in Idaho, for governor. Paulette Jordan a Coeur d’Alene tribal member.

And a dog named Raul, a Labrador, almost won the Republican primary race there, however Little Brad squeaked by. :)



Other than that it appears conventional Democrats won the primary's in the other three states. The ones who raised the most, or almost the most funds won.

It looks to me like folks are interested in winning these races and kicking out the Republican more than they are about the finer ideological points of Sanders progressive purity.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Two Socialists In Pennsylvania Just Won Victories Democrats Can’t Ignore

Update, 9:45 PM, 6/15: Sara Innamorato and Summer Lee, both members of Pittsburgh’s chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, have defeated Dom and Paul Costa, both incumbent state representatives, in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary. No Republican candidate has filed to run in either district. Rep. Dom Costa, defeated by Innamorato, mounted a late write-in bid for the GOP’s ballot line. It is unclear both whether it was successful, and if it was, what his intentions are for the November general election.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... 1-results/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Sam Lefthand
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

ap215 » Tue May 15, 2018 9:48 pm wrote:Two Socialists In Pennsylvania Just Won Victories Democrats Can’t Ignore

Update, 9:45 PM, 6/15: Sara Innamorato and Summer Lee, both members of Pittsburgh’s chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, have defeated Dom and Paul Costa, both incumbent state representatives, in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary. No Republican candidate has filed to run in either district. Rep. Dom Costa, defeated by Innamorato, mounted a late write-in bid for the GOP’s ballot line. It is unclear both whether it was successful, and if it was, what his intentions are for the November general election.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... 1-results/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I love that Mother Jones title, Two Socialists In Pennsylvania Just Won Victories Democrats Can’t Ignore

Democrats Can’t Ignore,,, from day to day I can't even remember the name of my state Rep.

I'm sure Democrats all across the land will be all-a-flutter tomorrow about how these two Democratic Socialists got a combined 12,412 votes and each winning a state Rep seat somewhere in Pittsburgh.

According to an update: "With 99% precincts reporting, it appears that Dom Costa’s attempt to obtain the GOP ballot line fell short by about two dozen votes. Innamorato finishes with 5,757 votes, nearly 65% of votes cast. Summer Lee won with 6,655 votes, or almost 68% of votes cast."

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Sam Lefthand » Wed May 16, 2018 12:42 am wrote:
Interesting, a Bernie Sanders progressive did win a primary race in Idaho, for governor. Paulette Jordan a Coeur d’Alene tribal member.

And a dog named Raul, a Labrador, almost won the Republican primary race there, however Little Brad squeaked by. :)



Other than that it appears conventional Democrats won the primary's in the other three states. The ones who raised the most, or almost the most funds won.

It looks to me like folks are interested in winning these races and kicking out the Republican more than they are about the finer ideological points of Sanders progressive purity.
:arrow: Yep, and when the general election rolls around in November, remember what Pres. Harry S. Truman said~ "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time" There's nothing radical about being a true progressive and behaving like one~
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.
~Franklin D. Roosevelt~

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Former Rep. Shemia Fagan Unseats State Sen. Rod Monroe

Former state Rep. Shemia Fagan (D-Clackamas) will unseat incumbent state Sen. Rod Monroe (D-East Portland) in their Democratic primary battle for his Oregon Senate seat.

In early returns, Fagan has 61.9 percent of the vote, while Monroe has 24.7 percent. Kayse Jama, the executive director of Unite Oregon, is a distant third with 13.1 percent.

http://www.wweek.com/news/2018/05/15/fo ... y-returns/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Sorry Democrats, 2018 won't be the blue wave you were hoping for

In 2004, Democrats had a momentum no amount of Super PAC money could buy. After President George W. Bush’s approval rating soared to 90% following the 9/11 attacks, he steadily lost ground, sinking to his pre-election approval level by early 2003. After Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq in March of that year, his numbers once again spiked to nearly 75%; yet after American fatalities mounted and no evidence of weapons of mass destruction was found, Bush plummeted to the mid-40% mark by early 2004.

With a public disaffected over the prosecution of the war, it appeared Republicans faced long odds to hold the presidency. But to loosely paraphrase Die Hard’s Hans Gruber, “You ask for a miracle, I give you … John Kerry.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 620839002/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Say, AP215, just wondering.

You do know Christian Schneider, the USA Today columnist you just cited, regularly writes for National Review, Weekly Standard, and The Federalist.

IOW, you're quoting a conservative.

I thought so, given how many times he warns about Democrats being "smug, paternalistic scolds".
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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ProfessorX » Sun May 20, 2018 12:25 pm wrote:Say, AP215, just wondering.

You do know Christian Schneider, the USA Today columnist you just cited, regularly writes for National Review, Weekly Standard, and The Federalist.

IOW, you're quoting a conservative.

I thought so, given how many times he warns about Democrats being "smug, paternalistic scolds".
Why would someone do that on this board?

When I saw this GARBAGE I wondered that out loud
Excuse me while I use a BROAD BRUSH to say anyone who spends one minute defending anything rump is just as guilty as he is of all his crimes

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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I'll hazard a guess.

Like many people, AP wants to warn Democrats not to get too overconfident on this "blue wave" stuff. That's good.

Like some people, AP, it seems to me, anyway, wants to complain Democrats aren't doing as well as they should be, because, of course, party leadership doesn't totally agree with his (insert vision here: progressive, rural moderate/centrist, swing-trumper, etc.)

So, he saw an article on Dems' (purported) declining chances in November, and didn't care he was quoting a conservative who thinks the Dems will lose for being too liberal.

That is my supposition.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Tax law supporters rally for Republicans in tough races

Business groups that backed the tax bill are trying to help vulnerable Republican lawmakers by highlighting their work on the issue.

They are running ads in the lawmakers’ districts and partnering with them on events at businesses that have benefited from the tax law.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/38840 ... ough-races" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Lightfoot reports $243K in campaign cash, tops among Emanuel challengers

A little more than a week after launching her mayoral bid against Mayor Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago Police Board President Lori Lightfoot catapulted past eight other mayoral challengers in fundraising Friday, depositing nearly $250,000 into her campaign fund.

Lightfoot, a former federal prosecutor and partner at the law firm Mayer Brown, reported 78 contributions, totaling $243,000, much of it from fellow attorneys. The money still leaves Lightfoot’s fundraising far behind Emanuel, who recently reported raising nearly $3 million in two weeks, but it could serve as an early signal of her ability to raise enough money to run a viable campaign.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/loca ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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New poll shows Hubbell leads Dems in primary bid for governor

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll gave Fred Hubbell an 11 point lead with 31% of respondents saying they'd vote for him if the election were held today.

Nate Boulton had the support of 20% of the respondents. Cathy Glasson followed with 13%. John Norris and Andy McGuire both received 5%. Ross Wilburn placed at the bottom with 3%.

http://www.kcrg.com/content/news/New-po ... 42131.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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A Democratic Spring: 12 Left Challengers Taking On the Party Establishment in 2018

THE SHOCK OF DONALD TRUMP’S ELECTION inspired an organized, determined resistance on many fronts and in many forms. One could be called a “democratic spring”: a long-germinating rebellion within the Democratic Party that gained strength with Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid and might just save the withered institution from itself.

The Left has sprouted an independent electoral infrastructure, including the formation of new groups like Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, Indivisible and Brand New Congress; the invigoration of existing political organizations like the Working Families Party; and a shift toward greater electoral engagement by groups like People’s Action and the Democratic Socialists of America.

http://inthesetimes.com/features/2018_d ... ngers.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

ap215 » Mon May 21, 2018 11:05 am wrote:A Democratic Spring: 12 Left Challengers Taking On the Party Establishment in 2018

THE SHOCK OF DONALD TRUMP’S ELECTION inspired an organized, determined resistance on many fronts and in many forms. One could be called a “democratic spring”: a long-germinating rebellion within the Democratic Party that gained strength with Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid and might just save the withered institution from itself.

The Left has sprouted an independent electoral infrastructure, including the formation of new groups like Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, Indivisible and Brand New Congress; the invigoration of existing political organizations like the Working Families Party; and a shift toward greater electoral engagement by groups like People’s Action and the Democratic Socialists of America.

http://inthesetimes.com/features/2018_d ... ngers.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A Democratic Tea Party. :(

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Brand New Congress is a bit funky.

From their own website FAQ ...

Brand New Congress is not bi-partisan or non-partisan — we are “post-partisan.” The two major parties in America have disintegrated into weak, sprawling sets of local and state organizations that don’t know what they stand for. They are still relevant in one important way: they represent vague cultural brands that are important to something like two thirds of American voters.

[snip]

The fact is that both Republican and Democratic establishments are equally as opposed to taking big steps to fix our economy and right the wrongs of our out of control criminal justice system. And among Republican, Democratic, and Independent voters, there is an invisible majority waiting to be united around radical and practical solutions.

[snip][end]

Needless to say,
a) they must be viewing a different Republican party (including voters) than I am. Only the "establishment" of the party is bad; the voters, who as Ike keeps noting, elected Trump, are just fine. :roll:
b) they think I'm only still a Democrat because it's a "cultural brand". That my party stands for nothing. I know what it stands for (even if Sanders helped write the 2016 platform, I still think it was pretty good even beforehand :D ), and I belong to it because I support it.

I don't dislike their progressive platform. Looks good. But given all that BS they just spewed above, that they will back both Dems and Republicans equally, they could only find, out of 26 candidates they're supporting, 2 Republicans that endorse their platform. :roll: One in AK, one in TN, that's it. Maybe that should tell the fool who wrote that FAQ that Dems and Reps don't support their progressive agenda equally. :roll:

Plus, this whole "throw the incumbents out" ethos behind the group, as if they somehow think replacing a long-time corrupt pol with a new one corrupted by the same shit will change anything.

Hokay. Go fuck yourselves, not that I would ever give your stupid group a dime. I hope that's clear.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats

Despite forecasts of a blue tsunami, it’s still not guaranteed that Democrats will win back the House majority. But the playing field of competitive House races is expanding and shifting to almost exclusively Republican territory.

After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/r ... -democrats" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Thread

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Veteran Amy McGrath continues a Democratic winning streak for women and veterans

Insurgent candidate Amy McGrath, a retired Marine fighter pilot, pulled off an upset victory in a Democratic primary House race in Kentucky on Tuesday night, defeating the party establishment candidate.

McGrath emerged from a three-person race in Kentucky’s Sixth District, beating her main challenger Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. The race was called around 8 pm, with McGrath winning with 46 percent of the vote, compared to Gray’s 42.3 percent. Gray, a millionaire who ran for US Senate against Rand Paul in 2016, had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

https://www.vox.com/2018/5/22/17381726/ ... y-midterms" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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