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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:00 am 
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Montgomery Blair High School Predicts Congressional Elections

As a high school student, it’s amazing to think that I’ve contributed to something that professionals such as FiveThirtyEight and CrossTab are currently doing.

For the past two months, math teacher David Stein has led seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in creating a model that predicts the results of the 2018 congressional elections. This model (which we named the Overall Results of an Analytical Consideration of the Looming Elections a.k.a. ORACLE of Blair) was developed by a group of around 70 high school seniors. Apart from the youth and enthusiasm that went into making it, the advantage our model has over professionally developed models is transparency. Unlike professionals, we need not have any secrets in regards to how our predictions are generated. In fact, the sections that follow attempt to detail exactly how we come up with all of the numbers involved in our model. As an individual, this was a great experience where we got to apply theory learned in statistics to a larger project and was generally a joy to work on. I hope that more high schools see the value in projects like these.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1 ... ign=recent


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Klarner Politics | Forecast 2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:

https://www.klarnerpolitics.org/


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:58 pm 
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Who needs Black Lightning? Voting gives you your mightiest superpower


Quote:
..........After two years in the Age of Trump, watching America become a country known for hate rather than freedom, for rising white nationalism rather than a united American nationalism, we either will continue down the bad road we’re on – or fight to stop a runaway train..........

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:38 pm 
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It's two weeks out. This is when I look at the polls and figure out what I think is going to happen.

I think my avatar is going to come back to life. The Democratic party donkey in my avatar is saying to the GOP Elephant "your loss is my gain." That last happened at sun up on new years day in 1931. https://me.me/i/cheer-up-rememb-your-lo ... st-3286555

It was after Hoover's wave election. His party lost somewhere around 100 seats.


We might not quite match that. They named a vacuum cleaner after Hoover. The best kind of vacuum cleaner, the kind that sucks the hardest. Trump sucks pretty hard too, but I don't know that he sucks as hard as Hoover did.

So I think 60 or more seats in the house, not 100.

I think Heidi Heitkamp stands a 50-50, I want to say she'll win, and we'll pick off some of theirs, we'll have the Senate by two maybe three.

We're going to plow them with Governors, and some state houses are going to go our way too.


The polls look OK to me. It's the fundamentals through which I find the most comfort. The fundamental thing about it is, it's our turn this time, that's what a wave election is about.


Trump got elected when it was their turn, I really think that was most of it. Just a stupid who's turn it is thing that has been going on for a hundred years or more.

That's the way people who really don't know a blasted thing about it can pretend they have a system which they adhere to when they vote which makes them feel wise.


It's straight from Bird's Thorium I think. ;)

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:53 am 
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Cook Moves OK Gov. to Tossup, NH Gov. to Lean R; Democrat Generic Lead Goes from 6% to 10%

Cook Political Ratings has move the Oklahoma Governor’s Race and New Hampshire Governor races towards the Democratic candidates with Oklahoma now a tossup and New Hampshire shifted from likely Republican to lean Republican.

In Oklahoma:

...some GOP strategists are growing concerned that (GOP candidate) Kevin Stitt hasn’t been able to close the deal. Democrats have always believed that the state is ready for change after eight years with GOP Gov. Mary Fallin at the helm; Fallin may well be the most unpopular Governor in the country today. And, that their nominee, former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, is the strongest candidate they could have hoped for.

While Stitt is an outsider, Democrats have worked to tie him to Fallin, saying that if elected, Stitt will amount to a third term for Fallin. Republicans have started to portray Edmondson as too liberal for the state. This is quickly becoming a jump ball.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1 ... ign=recent


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:47 am 
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Barack Obama in Detroit: 'The stakes in this election are really high'

Standing before a crowd of several thousand people in Detroit Friday night, former President Barack Obama said the biggest threat to the nation’s democracy is indifference.

But a vote on Nov. 6 can neutralize that threat, he told a crowd jammed into the gymnasium at Cass Technical High School.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politi ... 774600002/


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:05 pm 
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Reports of Voter Intimidation at Polling Places in Texas

Tempers are flaring during early voting in Dallas County, Texas, and reports of voter intimidation are on the rise. The county’s nonpartisan election administrator said that the harassment — including name-calling and interrogating voters waiting in line — is the worst she’s seen in decades.

“I’ve been here for 30 years, and this harassment that’s going on, I haven’t ever seen the likes of this,” said Toni Pippins-Poole, the county’s election director. “I’ve seen some other things, props being used and whatnot, but nothing like this type of mentality or aggressiveness or demeaning type of actions.”

https://truthout.org/articles/reports-o ... -in-texas/


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:24 pm 
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Barack Obama in Detroit: 'The stakes in this election are really high'

Standing before a crowd of several thousand people in Detroit Friday night, former President Barack Obama said the biggest threat to the nation’s democracy is indifference.

But a vote on Nov. 6 can neutralize that threat, he told a crowd jammed into the gymnasium at Cass Technical High School.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politi ... 774600002/



Quote:
“.......I’m hopeful that despite all the noise, all the lies, we’re going to remember who we are, who we’re called to be. Out of this political darkness, I see a great awakening,” he said. “If you vote, things will get better, it will be a start.”............

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:01 pm 
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I miss him.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:25 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:09 pm 
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www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:17 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:48 pm 
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www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:02 pm 
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Concern-trolling "walk away movement" pushed by right-wing media to quash Blue Wave

I just read the following comment, which really got my hackles up:

There is a new movement “walk away ...liberals saying they are tired of political correctness...this is probably a fake ad by Russians and or republicans...trump has noticed it and will pounce on it and create more confusion and chaos among Democrats...spread the word

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1 ... ign=recent


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:49 pm 
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This is a so called "Walk Away" photo:

Image

I think it might be imaginary.

I ask, is it plausible that there a woman, not two women, one woman wearing pussy hat defaced with a Trump sticker at a "Walk Away" event anywhere in the US who wore a pussy hat for the Women's March?

One man or woman at any of their events who is not wearing a costume and or a facade posing as Democrat who is walking away?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:41 pm 
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This is a so called "Walk Away" photo:

Image

I think it might be imaginary.

I ask, is it plausible that there a woman, not two women, one woman wearing pussy hat defaced with a Trump sticker at a "Walk Away" event anywhere in the US who wore a pussy hat for the Women's March?

One man or woman at any of their events who is not wearing a costume and or a facade posing as Democrat who is walking away?


#walkaway is not imaginary. It's another classic astroturf ploy that often trends on Hamilton 68. There is a Black equivalent called #BLEXIT. These are social media-driven astroturfing efforts, so if you're not on social media, you're not going to see it.

They're also directed at suppressing the young vote. That's why they are social media-driven.

I have a social media friend who has been caught up in it for most of this year. I've all but defriended him after trying to talk to him about it early on, because he's really a nice guy who has fallen for a hoax -- young guy, gay, Jewish, Latino, veteran. Plus, I want to see what they're up to and how it affects actual people.

It's not a surprise that they've again ramped up activity a couple weeks out from the midterm; same with that stupid Black youth for Trump conference that happened at the White House yesterday (those are #BLEXIT kids.)

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:58 pm 
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Related: Michigan Black Chamber of Commerce, Inc. - FB page

These young people are being egged on by olds like the Michigan Black Chamber of Commerce. The link they include is a BBC article on those handkerchiefhead MAGAhats. They seem not to recognize that said BBC article is making fun of these dorks.

Quote:
As opposed to castigating these Black young people for their interest in solutions, we should be seeking to understand their frustrations with the current political narrative and the failures of both the Republican and Democratic Party, to serve the interest of Black people. The next generation of young people aren’t drinking either parties cool-aid anymore or colonized brainwashing, but rather fighting for economic interest that will create jobs and an entrepreneurial economy, when the policies of both parties have failed Black people without reparation for its enslavement and servitude stances. #wakeup #standforsomething or #fallforanything http://ow.ly/EmPi30moFj4


:problem:

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:49 pm 
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Dem Wave Faces GOP Gerrymandering

(AP) -- As a freshman congressman, Republican Ted Budd seems to have several strikes against him as he faces his first re-election in his North Carolina district.

He belongs to the same party as the president, a historical negative in midterm elections. President Donald Trump's national disapproval ratings have risen since taking office. And Budd faces a female challenger in a year when women's political involvement has been intensifying.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/a ... ymandering


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:38 am 
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Kansas Democrats seek to shed state’s ‘red rectangle’ reputation

(WASHINGTON) — Like the tornado that plucked Dorothy Gale from her farmhouse in this state and dropped her in Oz once upon a fictional time, Americans are currently staring down an electoral storm threatening to flip conventional political assumptions on their heads.

Democrats from coast to coast are expected to flip House seats in this year’s midterm elections, but perhaps nowhere as uniquely as in Kansas, where two competitive districts sit adjacent to one another here in the eastern third of the state, but where the races — while occupying the same political atmosphere — are sharply different in complexion, like the indigos and oranges lying parallel across a Sunflower State sunset.

http://sandhillsexpress.com/abc_politic ... d36123859/


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:24 pm 
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U.S. Supreme Court paves the way for state supreme courts to strike down GOP gerrymanders

In a major victory in the fight against Republican gerrymandering, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a Republican appeal of a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court ruling from earlier this year that used the Keystone State’s own constitution to hold that gerrymandering violates voters’ rights to “free and equal” elections. With the U.S. Supreme Court lurching far to the right and almost certainly dooming efforts to set a federal standard against gerrymandering, the court’s decision to let a state ruling stand provides a groundbreaking way forward.

Relying on the state constitution’s guarantee of the right to vote, Pennsylvania’s Democratic-majority court replaced the GOP’s congressional gerrymander with a fairer map that intentionally set out to help make sure the party with the votes would win the most seats—a principle that’s the bedrock of democracy in a two-party system. And this approach could have an impact far outside Pennsylvania alone. That’s because nearly every other state constitution similarly establishes a right to vote, and many of them also have clauses like Pennsylvania’s that protect free and equal elections.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1 ... rrymanders


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:34 pm 
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:59 pm 
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ATTN: President Obama Doesn't Have Time For These 7 Excuses Not To Vote

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:48 am 
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Blue America - #VOTE Early - #GOTV for #KaraEastman, Democrat for Nebraska's 2nd by November 6.

www.youtube.com Video from : www.youtube.com


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:04 am 
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Yep they're the blame because most of them are 'retiring'.

Midterm elections: Fearing loss of the House, Republicans blame each other. 'Welcome to Washington'

WASHINGTON – Continuing a grand Washington tradition, Republicans at the White House, on Capitol Hill and within the national party have begun blaming one another for an election that hasn't happened yet.

Burdened by a controversial president who has inspired historic Democratic enthusiasm, Republicans expect to have difficulty holding onto their House majority. Behind the scenes, Republicans have formed a circular firing squad ahead of next Tuesday's election.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:27 am 
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After Lawsuit Filed, Early Voting Expanded for Historically Black University in Texas

Two days after students at Prairie View A&M University sued Waller County over allegations that the county is suppressing the voting rights of black residents, the rural county said it is expanding early voting opportunities for students at the historically black university.

The county will now open a Sunday polling place at Prairie View City Hall and expand voting hours at the university's campus center on Monday through Wednesday of next week to 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., instead of the original 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., according to the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund. Students can continue to early vote at the Waller County Community Center in Prairie View on Thursday and Friday of next week.

http://www.governing.com/topics/educati ... texas.html


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