The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

All issues pertaining to upcoming elections are discussed here.

Moderators: plunderer, Bernie the union guy

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

S. Carolina elected official now backing Sanders over Biden
A South Carolina elected official who endorsed Joe Biden last month is switching her allegiance to Bernie Sanders in the state's first-in-the-South presidential primary, saying she had viewed the former vice president — whose support in the state is considered deep -- as “a compromise choice.”
Dalhi Myers told The Associated Press on Wednesday that she was making the change in part because she values what she sees as Sanders' strength in being able to go toe-to-toe with President Donald Trump in the general election.
“I looked at that, and I thought, 'He's right,'" said Myers, a black woman first elected to the Richland County Council in 2016. “He's unafraid and he's unapologetic. ... I like the fact that he is willing to fight for a better America — for the least, the fallen, the left behind.".....

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

[BBvideo 425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl_qwINlopA[/BBvideo]
I'm very proud to be Jewish and I look forward to becoming the first Jewish president in the history of this country.

User avatar
Sam Lefthand
Board Emeritus
Posts: 14034
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

538 has a niffy new thing:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... d/montana/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The link is set to show the State of Montana. They have one state university poll listed from last October. Warren with 40% is 25% over Biden who has 15%, Bullock 5%, O'Rourke 5%, Klobuchar 2%, Harris 2%, Buttigieg 2%, Sanders 2%

40 likely voters

:shock:

I looked the report up and noticed right away that the names of 33 Student participants were listed on the first page of the report. Now I'm wondering who the other seven people were such that the total number of them equals 40 likely voters.

But then I read further and found out the poll is for both Montana and Wyoming, and that 40 likely voters part is a misprint at 538, it should have said 400 likely voters, that's better.

:)

"The margin of error for the Montana sample is 6.7 percent and the margin of error for the Wyoming sample is 7.4 percent. Various subgroups have larger margins of error. Crosstabulation results by sex, age, education, party affiliation, and religion are included for questions related to approval ratings on a variety of items and questions regarding most Republican primary races. Subgroup cross-tabulation results are limited to age and education for most Democratic primary races due to a small sample size of respondents who indicated they would vote Democratic primaries in Montana and Wyoming. Cross-tabulation results are also not present in some questions due to small sample size of subgroups. The sample was weighted for sex, age, race, age, and education based on Census Bureau estimates of the voting-age population in Montana and Wyoming, and for party affiliation for Wyoming respondents based on data provided by the Wyoming Secretary of State’s office."

https://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/po ... Report.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ap215
Board Emeritus
Posts: 13681
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:45 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ap215 »

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

User avatar
ProfessorX
Board Emeritus
Posts: 17824
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Location: Sunny South Florida

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ProfessorX »

BTW, not all Bernie supporters are Bernie-Bros, but THESE people are (and I do acknowledge many might be female) ...

ONLY 53% OF BERNIE SANDERS VOTERS WILL DEFINITELY SUPPORT 2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IF HE DOESN'T WIN: POLL
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders ... ge-1483831" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What bothers me is they wouldn't even be satisfied if Liz Warren is the nominee. What? Is she not liberal/progressive enough?
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger

User avatar
carmenjonze
Board Emeritus
Posts: 25475
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:24 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by carmenjonze »

ProfessorX » Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:21 pm wrote:BTW, not all Bernie supporters are Bernie-Bros, but THESE people are (and I do acknowledge many might be female) ...

ONLY 53% OF BERNIE SANDERS VOTERS WILL DEFINITELY SUPPORT 2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IF HE DOESN'T WIN: POLL
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders ... ge-1483831" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Ha well, you don't have to be a guy to be a berniebro. This anecdotal but I do still know maybe 5 Bernie people. One was a classic bro in 2016 but also somebody I've known since the mid-90s so we were able to "agree to disgree" because we almost lost a friendship over it. We're still trying to work on that friendship 4 years later. Anyway, dunno if he still is one in 2020, but the other people are not-bro they're the rare (ime) Bernie supporter you can have an actual conversation with, anymore. Also anecdotal, almost everybody I know who is still a Bernie supporter is female. But being a Berniebro is different from being a Bernie supporter. Both categories cross all genders.

I think he took a hit among his trans support in accepting the Rogan endorsement.
What bothers me is they wouldn't even be satisfied if Liz Warren is the nominee. What? Is she not liberal/progressive enough?
Yeah it's litmus-testing. And probably gender related as well, including among the berniebro women, who may be thinking a woman can't beat Trump.

Plus, Bernieville has NEVER forgiven Warren for endorsing HRC over Bernie. I would not be surprised if they plan to take it out on her at the ballot box 4 years later.
Last edited by carmenjonze on Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

Stop calling the cops on us.

User avatar
Sam Lefthand
Board Emeritus
Posts: 14034
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

ProfessorX » Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:21 pm wrote:BTW, not all Bernie supporters are Bernie-Bros, but THESE people are (and I do acknowledge many might be female) ...

ONLY 53% OF BERNIE SANDERS VOTERS WILL DEFINITELY SUPPORT 2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IF HE DOESN'T WIN: POLL
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders ... ge-1483831" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What bothers me is they wouldn't even be satisfied if Liz Warren is the nominee. What? Is she not liberal/progressive enough?
That's why that poll the other day which Trumpeted the news that Sanders would do about 4% better than Biden head to head against Trump in the general election. Some of his supporters are skunks. All the other candidates supporters would support Sanders if it came to that, but not all of his. So the poll says Sanders would do better.

But that might not be real. If his campaign staff's dirty tricks department continues to erode our party for his benefit whilst he attempts to continue wear a halo, him being above it all ... . I might not give a damn by the time of the general election.

If it comes to that I need to be convinced that he's not old Lefty Trump. I'm not there yet but if it continues ... .

:|

User avatar
ProfessorX
Board Emeritus
Posts: 17824
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Location: Sunny South Florida

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ProfessorX »

I'd absolutely work for Sanders in the GE. Our first Jewish president? Yeah, for that alone. (Alas it won't be Michael Bennet ... or even another Mike B. But I digress.)

I don't think he will do as well in the GE against Trump as people think -- all those polls cited in 2016 or now 2020 are before the Trump smear machine got cranking on him.

I also don't think he can accomplish most of what's on his agenda with the Senate he will have.

There's a chance he wins IA and NH. But I think this "momentum" stuff is over-rated and 538 has him being creamed in the rest of the country. Starting with NV and SC. I really don't see him getting the nom this time either. No nothing or no one is "cheating" him.

That doesn't mean I will ignore what his campaign or followers are doing. To be clear, not all Bernie supporters are "BB"s. I voted for him the Florida primary, I admit mostly to "send a message" to Hillary, but I knew he wasn't gonna win the Fla primary anyway. The guy I most wanted (O'Malley) was out at that point.

I consider them "BBs" if they ... won't settle for anyone but their "chosen one," not even Liz; overlook or ignore any mistakes his campaign makes; are willing to trash her or others with out of bounds low blows; and are already moaning that they will spoil the GE for 2020. Those are the ones I consider "BBs" regardless of gender. Other Bernie supporters are just fine and are not what I am referring to.
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger

RealityCheck
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:14 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by RealityCheck »

I doubt that poll ppl aren't gonna sit out if it's not bernie... that's just some fear mongering b's to demonize Bernie n his suport been going on ever since Hillary list and they wanted done to blame

ap215
Board Emeritus
Posts: 13681
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:45 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ap215 »

From The DNC Nominees for the 2020 Democratic Convention standing committees list

Image

User avatar
ProfessorX
Board Emeritus
Posts: 17824
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Location: Sunny South Florida

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ProfessorX »

Sanders allies in new uproar over DNC convention appointments
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... pointments" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some Democratic National Committee (DNC) members and supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are venting frustration at DNC Chairman Tom Perez over his initial appointments to the committees that will oversee the rules and party platform at the nominating convention in Milwaukee later this year.

Sanders’s allies are incensed by two names in particular: former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who will co-chair the rules committee, and Hillary Clinton’s former campaign chairman John Podesta, who will have a seat on that committee.

The Sanders campaign unsuccessfully sought to have Frank removed from the rules committee in 2016, describing him as an “aggressive attack surrogate for the Clinton campaign.”

[snip][end]

Some people just don't like Barney ... don't get it. Or do I?
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger

User avatar
Sam Lefthand
Board Emeritus
Posts: 14034
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

Some people just aren't Demacrats.

Doremus Jessup
Political Junkie
Posts: 629
Joined: Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:51 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Doremus Jessup »

ProfessorX » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:12 am wrote:Sanders allies in new uproar over DNC convention appointments
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... pointments" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some Democratic National Committee (DNC) members and supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are venting frustration at DNC Chairman Tom Perez over his initial appointments to the committees that will oversee the rules and party platform at the nominating convention in Milwaukee later this year.

Sanders’s allies are incensed by two names in particular: former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who will co-chair the rules committee, and Hillary Clinton’s former campaign chairman John Podesta, who will have a seat on that committee.

The Sanders campaign unsuccessfully sought to have Frank removed from the rules committee in 2016, describing him as an “aggressive attack surrogate for the Clinton campaign.”

[snip][end]

Some people just don't like Barney ... don't get it. Or do I?
You don’t.

Barney has a rather intense history of openly and unmercifully criticizing Bernie.

User avatar
ProfessorX
Board Emeritus
Posts: 17824
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Location: Sunny South Florida

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ProfessorX »

Fairly or unfairly, deservedly or undeservedly?

I know, for some folks, that doesn't matter.
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger

Doremus Jessup
Political Junkie
Posts: 629
Joined: Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:51 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Doremus Jessup »

Probably all of the above.

User avatar
ProfessorX
Board Emeritus
Posts: 17824
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:57 pm
Location: Sunny South Florida

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ProfessorX »

I'm sorry. Is this a new DNC bylaw? "Thou shalt not serve on committees if thou hast ever criticized St. Bernie?"

You know, I've said this a few times. I like the guy. I would vote for him in the GE. I'm personally afraid Trump will trounce him (his fans overestimate his chances), but as I said, I would. I can't get the way some Bros treat him like a holy man that can't be criticized....

IIRC, Frank criticized Bernie because Bernie first made some statements on Dodd-Frank that were erroneous. I put that in the fair, deserved category.

It really irritates me that some are now revoking his "liberal" card because he criticized Bernie.
-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.
Malaclypse the Younger

User avatar
carmenjonze
Board Emeritus
Posts: 25475
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:24 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by carmenjonze »

ProfessorX » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:29 pm wrote:I'm sorry. Is this a new DNC bylaw? "Thou shalt not serve on committees if thou hast ever criticized St. Bernie?"

You know, I've said this a few times. I like the guy. I would vote for him in the GE. I'm personally afraid Trump will trounce him (his fans overestimate his chances), but as I said, I would. I can't get the way some Bros treat him like a holy man that can't be criticized....

IIRC, Frank criticized Bernie because Bernie first made some statements on Dodd-Frank that were erroneous. I put that in the fair, deserved category.

It really irritates me that some are now revoking his "liberal" card because he criticized Bernie.
They did the same to Liz. These are two of the most liberal people to serve in Congress in the past 30 years, imo.

Litmus testers gotta go...

Stop calling the cops on us.

User avatar
Sam Lefthand
Board Emeritus
Posts: 14034
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:07 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Sam Lefthand »

ProfessorX » Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:29 pm wrote:I'm sorry. Is this a new DNC bylaw? "Thou shalt not serve on committees if thou hast ever criticized St. Bernie?"

You know, I've said this a few times. I like the guy. I would vote for him in the GE. I'm personally afraid Trump will trounce him (his fans overestimate his chances), but as I said, I would. I can't get the way some Bros treat him like a holy man that can't be criticized....

IIRC, Frank criticized Bernie because Bernie first made some statements on Dodd-Frank that were erroneous. I put that in the fair, deserved category.

It really irritates me that some are now revoking his "liberal" card because he criticized Bernie.
I'm reacting similarly X, but in my case I see an additional aggravation. The issues criticized by the Sanders camp surrounding the selection of the steering members who will organize and then sit on those committees is being rolled out as if it were the whole of those committees without disclouure of the reality that most of the members of those committees will be chosen later based upon the results of the primary voting, a fair process where by the Sanders camp will have a proportional representation on those commeettes if they do well in the primary.

In other words they they're suppressing and excluding evidence a fallacy of logic.
Fallacy of Exclusion and Suppressed Evidence
Important evidence which would undermine an inductive argument is excluded from consideration. “In an induction, the total relevant information needs to be examined. The fallacy occurs when relevant evidence which would undermine an inductive argument is excluded from consideration. The requirement that all relevant information be included is called the principle of total evidence.” (Chhanda, Logic: Informal, Symbolic, and Inductive, p. 48.)

Examples
1)"The police found a dead body with three bullet wounds. It would be a safe, albeit not mathematically certain, conclusion that the person found by the police died because of his gunshot wounds — that is, unless we also knew that the body was missing its head. Although it is still possible that the victim died of gunshot wounds and that the decapitation was inflicted postmortem, it is equally possible that the manner of his death was decapitation and someone administered the bullet wounds postmortem for some other purpose. The fallacy of exclusion forces the decision maker into reaching a false conclusion owing to lack of relevant alternative evidence. (Pedneault, Rudewicz, Silverstone, Sheetz, Forensice Accounting and Fraud Investigation for Non-Experts (John Wiley & Sons: 2012), pp. 215-6)

2)"Many movie ads, for example, include positive comments from critics, such as 'One of the year's best movies' or 'Hilariously funny — Gene Siskel gave it a thumbs-up.' But when was the last time you saw an ad for a movie that mentioned that Roger Ebert gave it a thumbs down?" (Carrick, The Persuasive Pen, p. 183.)
https://afterall.net/illogic/inductive/ ... -evidence/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BTW that logic site is a site worthy of bookmarking.

I included example 2 to bolster my opinion that what the Sanders camp is doing is theater, and since it isn't being done in a theater it looks to me like it's being done as a part of a con job. To confuse and bewilder voters while at the same time assaulting the party that camp seems to be trying to take over by subterfuge and strong arm force.


Those fuckers better knock that shit off or i will soon view them as enemies. Mark my words! :(
Last edited by Sam Lefthand on Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
carmenjonze
Board Emeritus
Posts: 25475
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:24 pm

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by carmenjonze »

Sam Lefthand » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:41 am wrote:I included example 2 to bolster my opinion that what the Sanders camp is doing is theater, and since it isn't being done in a theater it looks to me like it's being done as a part of a con job. To confuse and bewilder voters while at the same time assaulting the party that camp seems to be trying to take over by subterfuge and strong arm force.
+++++

Stop calling the cops on us.

ap215
Board Emeritus
Posts: 13681
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:45 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by ap215 »

John Delaney drops out of 2020 presidential race

Former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) announced Friday that he was dropping out of the 2020 presidential race.

The big picture: Delaney was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy in the 2020 election, yet failed to establish himself once the field grew. In July, Axios reported that Delaney's staff had asked him to drop out, suggesting he wasn't spending enough money to run a competitive race and had flopped at the first debate.

https://www.axios.com/john-delaney-drop ... dc9c2.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

https://twitter.com/_ericblanc/status/1 ... 8415645696
Former @UAW president Bob King is endorsing @BernieSanders
. In this video, he explains why Bernie is not only the best candidate for workers & unions — he's also the candidate most likely to beat Trump.

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/statu ... 2764397570

DNC drops donor requirement for debates

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

The "Bernie Bros" of Iowa

During Michael Moore's 12-day tour of Iowa, a trope used against the Sanders campaign was constantly being upended - the myth of the "Bernie Bro." The majority of Sanders supporters are women, and during a stop at the M and M independent bookstore in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, 3 of these Iowa "Bernie Bros" sat down with Michael for a conversation.

User avatar
Libertas
Board Emeritus
Posts: 19477
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 11:53 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Libertas »

Gee....sigh


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... nst-trump/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, @BernieSanders once met with a Soviet spy as Mayor of Burlington. Wow.


https://twitter.com/ChrisDJackson/statu ... ussian-spy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If only someone had...ah, never mind.

Motor City
Policy Wonk
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Re: The 2020 Presidential Candidate Thread

Post by Motor City »

https://twitter.com/NicholsUprising/sta ... 2894530560
Epic crowd tonight in Cedar Rapids
the crowds Bernie pulls in wow

Post Reply