Ukraine

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ZoWie
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Ukraine

Post by ZoWie »

Fog of War has become opaque. Ominous.

Maybe now the media will talk about something besides a microscopic number of righties....

Biden says it's imminent:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/politics ... index.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211

Possible false flag attack in Donbass, evacuations begin:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60436938
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/europe/u ... index.html

Evacuations might actually be phony; order is possible Russian agitprop:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 17f332cec7
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ProfX
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ProfX »

Russia is no more monolithic than this country, and there's a growing number of Russian intellectuals calling on Putin not to invade.

Yes, I know that will no more stop him than such voices before the Iraq invasion, but it's worth noting.

MHO: one thing I think is clear is now post-Trump the Western EU-US alliance is pretty united. There may not be a military response to invasion, but I think efforts for sanctions will be united and concerted.

BTW, I too have been rooting all along for diplomacy to prevail, no one wants war, this is not a political game, war never has been, lives will be lost, Ukrainians and Russians alike will mourn their children. The only thing I will point out is, for the last 8 years or so, "war" under another name has been going on in the Donbass and Crimea already, and it's not like hundreds haven't already been dying in what people euphemistically call "low intensity conflict". In a way, it's not like war there hasn't already been happening, but it could now go from a simmer to a boil.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by gounion »

ProfX wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 6:49 pm Russia is no more monolithic than this country, and there's a growing number of Russian intellectuals calling on Putin not to invade.

Yes, I know that will no more stop him than such voices before the Iraq invasion, but it's worth noting.

MHO: one thing I think is clear is now post-Trump the Western EU-US alliance is pretty united. There may not be a military response to invasion, but I think efforts for sanctions will be united and concerted.

BTW, I too have been rooting all along for diplomacy to prevail, no one wants war, this is not a political game, war never has been, lives will be lost, Ukrainians and Russians alike will mourn their children. The only thing I will point out is, for the last 8 years or so, "war" under another name has been going on in the Donbass and Crimea already, and it's not like hundreds haven't already been dying in what people euphemistically call "low intensity conflict". In a way, it's not like war there hasn't already been happening, but it could now go from a simmer to a boil.
One quibble. Seems to me that Putin wants war. :D
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ProfX »

I think what he wants is to restore the glories of the Russian Tsarist Empire, and he wants all of Ukraine (not just Crimea/Donbass) to be part of Russia again. Is he willing to use military force to attain that objective? Is he willing to pay all the consequences of doing so? I think the second thing is the only thing that has made him hesitate.

Who will he have in his corner? Possibly China, maybe some of the members of the so-called Eurasian Union, ... the rest of the world, not so much. I don't think the UN will sit by. That said, that designed-to-be-toothless institution can't do very much, either.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

Noticed a couple headlines yesterday morning. By noon it had started to trend. Since i was having a nice day, i didn't open any of them.

Odd, what was trending on my Yahoo news page has now about disappeared. Google Putin/Ukraine, and jumping jehoshaphat, look't all the headlines. :shock: It doesn't look good. When do the Olympics come to a close?



i could see him being able to take and hold the Donbas region while then pushing south to his naval base. A push to Kiev using conventional forces and warfare? i doubt it can be done. And that's the thing that worries me. Putin, being the AI man that he is, has been thinking outside the box for the longest time now. He lost a good chunk of his military capabilities to Ukraine. That Putin can't even successfully field a aircraft carrier hasn't been lost on him. Unconventional warfare on the other hand, that could get him Kiev.

One thing has been very obvious from the beginning. Putin wants his country back. At his age, to achieve that goal, it could be he thinks he no longer has anything left to lose.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-02-19/
Putin launches nuclear drills as U.S. says Russian forces 'uncoil' for Ukraine attack
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday he believed the capital Kyiv would be targeted by Russia but that he did not think Putin was contemplating using nuclear weapons.

Biden said Putin would invade in the coming days: "As of this moment, I am convinced that he has made the decision."
That's a pretty bold statement. i hope he's wrong.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ZoWie »

No one can say, but Putin is not the type to back down. He's the hardest of the dying generation of KGB hard liners. Barring a convincing risk of, say, deposition in the traditional Russian manner (feet first with pall bearers), he has made up his mind. He couldn't get concessions by compromising the American upper class, though it probably would have worked barring covid, so now it's back to the old fashioned way.

Rather than speculate, I've decided that the time is here for wartime positioning. The post-modern fun and games are over. We're back in the 1970s. It's the wrong time to waste investment capital on fads like crypto, and the right time to entrench and wait out the chaos. Oil and natural gas prices will soar, though it won't be as shocking as in the initial Middle Eastern power grab, because we're used to it. Shortages will get worse. The usual suspects will use whatever's left of public health measures as an excuse to disrupt everything.

Just be glad you're not a Republican leader on Putin's kompromat list. They are in for nervous times. Their time on top is over.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ZoWie »

Ukraine conflict: Rebels declare general mobilisation as fighting grows

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60443504
Ukraine's Russian-backed breakaway eastern territories have ordered military mobilisations amid a deadly escalation in fighting.

Men of fighting age in the self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are being put on stand-by.

US President Joe Biden says he is convinced Russia will invade Ukraine, an allegation Moscow denies.

Western nations have accused Russia of trying to stage a fake crisis in the eastern regions as a pretext to invade.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

We've gone further back than that. We could very well be dealing with old fashioned Peter Great conquering events. i though we'd put an end to all the crusades and conquering. Nuremberg was supposed to take care of such grand plans of conquest.

i'd been wondering about his navy......


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html
Ukraine is also warning of upcoming Russian naval drills, in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, that would block shipping routes, and thus hurt Ukraine’s economy. Moscow has said the drills are legal under international law but Western officials worry that they are a cover to position even more Russian forces around Ukraine.
Good covering action for a southwest move.
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Libertas
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Libertas »

Just saw that the murderous dictator Putin has ordered the invasion.

Like I have said one murderous dictator like Putin along with another like Trump is bad news.

For now we just have the one.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by gounion »

Didn't we all know that as soon as the Olympics were over, the attack would start?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ProfX »

Has it started? Something's started, but Macron seems to be committed to heading it off.

Putin and Macron discuss a cease-fire in Ukraine as shelling appears to escalate
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/20/10820243 ... iscussions

Fog of War still hangs, I guess.

Fighting between the Russian separatists and other Ukrainians has already broken out, but then, as I've said, that's been happening at a low intensity over the last 8 years.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Libertas »

gounion wrote: Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:50 pm Didn't we all know that as soon as the Olympics were over, the attack would start?
Yep.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by gounion »

ProfX wrote: Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:56 pm Has it started? Something's started, but Macron seems to be committed to heading it off.

Putin and Macron discuss a cease-fire in Ukraine as shelling appears to escalate
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/20/10820243 ... iscussions

Fog of War still hangs, I guess.

Fighting between the Russian separatists and other Ukrainians has already broken out, but then, as I've said, that's been happening at a low intensity over the last 8 years.
No, but they're on the move. I figure it will be in the next day or so. Every time I'm away from the computer or awake from slumber, I check CNN, expecting it.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Libertas »

ProfX wrote: Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:56 pm Has it started? Something's started, but Macron seems to be committed to heading it off.

Putin and Macron discuss a cease-fire in Ukraine as shelling appears to escalate
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/20/10820243 ... iscussions

Fog of War still hangs, I guess.

Fighting between the Russian separatists and other Ukrainians has already broken out, but then, as I've said, that's been happening at a low intensity over the last 8 years.
Lets hope there is no war.

But knowing putin...
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ProfX »

The Fog persists.

White House says Biden has agreed to meet with Putin "in principle" as long as Russia does not invade Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/20/europe/b ... index.html

Washington (CNN)President Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to French-brokered summit talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as long as Russia does not further invade Ukraine, the White House said late Sunday.

[snip][end]

I don't know what to believe. It mostly has to do with whether I think Putin can be trusted. Obviously - I think not very far.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by gounion »

I think there is a time problem. I remember reading about how, very soon, it will become the rainy and muddy season in the Ukraine, which would greatly hamper an invasion. Although, I would think that most of the roads these days are paved, so what could it matter that much?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

gounion wrote: Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:34 pm I think there is a time problem. I remember reading about how, very soon, it will become the rainy and muddy season in the Ukraine, which would greatly hamper an invasion. Although, I would think that most of the roads these days are paved, so what could it matter that much?
It'd be, what, somewhere around 150 thousand troops? Some of the key battles would be for those roads and train junctions. Only so many of Putin's force's will be able to use and secure those transportation systems. Once secured, and in order to use them freely, they would have to push and clear Ukraine's front line that stretches between those key points. (pincer movements) That'd be where proper ground is needed for tanks and other heavy equipment. The problem is not so much that the ground would be wet, it's the frost/thaw that's the problem. Where a summer rain might slow them down, frost and snow are different. Frost goes 3-4 ft. deep. Add snow cover, and because of the frost, when it get's warm the snow melt has no place to go but through natural run off channels, which usually end up backing up and slowing the run off. The main problem is the frost, where as a good rain will turn the first foot of top soil to shit. frost on the other hand, going some 3-4 feet deep, will turn to shit that far down when it thaws. So, you have standing water that has a slow run off, and can't soak in because of that frost. Add that water to the frost/thaw and it turns into a quagmire.
Also, even for the roads, frost is a strange animal when it melts. Because the roads have been cleared of snow and driven on, it drives the frost even deeper making matters worse when it thaws. You could have a perfectly dry road, but if the frost is thawing below that, and with moisture having no place to go, it will heave upwards when driven on with heavy equipment. It's basically the reason for frost (weight restrictions) restrictions here every spring.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by gounion »

bradman wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:44 am It'd be, what, somewhere around 150 thousand troops? Some of the key battles would be for those roads and train junctions. Only so many of Putin's force's will be able to use and secure those transportation systems. Once secured, and in order to use them freely, they would have to push and clear Ukraine's front line that stretches between those key points. (pincer movements) That'd be where proper ground is needed for tanks and other heavy equipment. The problem is not so much that the ground would be wet, it's the frost/thaw that's the problem. Where a summer rain might slow them down, frost and snow are different. Frost goes 3-4 ft. deep. Add snow cover, and because of the frost, when it get's warm the snow melt has no place to go but through natural run off channels, which usually end up backing up and slowing the run off. The main problem is the frost, where as a good rain will turn the first foot of top soil to shit. frost on the other hand, going some 3-4 feet deep, will turn to shit that far down when it thaws. So, you have standing water that has a slow run off, and can't soak in because of that frost. Add that water to the frost/thaw and it turns into a quagmire.
Also, even for the roads, frost is a strange animal when it melts. Because the roads have been cleared of snow and driven on, it drives the frost even deeper making matters worse when it thaws. You could have a perfectly dry road, but if the frost is thawing below that, and with moisture having no place to go, it will heave upwards when driven on with heavy equipment. It's basically the reason for frost (weight restrictions) restrictions here every spring.
Yeah, I think that's what I read - the spring thaw turns everything into mud there, so prolonging things would be in favor of keeping the invasion from happening.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

gounion wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:51 am Yeah, I think that's what I read - the spring thaw turns everything into mud there, so prolonging things would be in favor of keeping the invasion from happening.
That's what i've been hoping for. Putin's running out of time.

i'm still hoping it's all a bluff. From a couple headlines this morning, i'm hearing Biden may have blinked first. It was something about the French agreement, and Biden some what agreeing 'in principal' with Putin's number one demand that NATO and the rest back off Ukraine. Developing.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

If it does happen, my guess......According to the map that shows the position of his troops in the NYT link i gave, Putin will hit the Donbass region hard. It's where a large part of his troops are centered and they have backup living in the area. He has another force stationed to the south of Donbass. If everything goes well in the Donbass area he can use those troops, which will already be on the move, to push into Ukraine. From there he can link those troops with the troops in the Donbass area and begin a SW push along the coast to his landlocked naval base while using his navy for cover. If you head to the north of Donbass, there are scattered thin lines all the way up to Belarus where he has yet another large force stationed in and around that area. It was after end of Putin and Belarus's little war game parade that Ukraine received assurance from Belarus that it had no intentions of getting involved in an invasion. i'd call BS. If Putin is successful with his drive west and south, he will come in from the north and Belarus won't be able to stay out of it. Link those troops to to the Donbass region and you have a decent static line to defend with Belarus and Crimea anchoring his flanks. That's where i'd stop. Leave a large buffer zone from there to the Ukrainian capital for now. Brought to that point, it could very well be the west still would not move on it. Move on the capital and that bet would be off.

If Putin is Hitler bold, he'll do it all simultaneously. If that happens right off the bat, i'd say he was going for the capital. What kind of buffer zone he leaves between him and the west is anyone's guess.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Libertas »

Just saw NBC report Putin has ordered the rounding up of dissidents to be imprisoned or killed, that’s what murderous dictators do.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ZoWie »

Sure sounds like Putin is going for it. In the absence of drumpf, no more "working through the system."

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

Might be limited to the east, though, don't know yet:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468264
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Re: Ukraine

Post by bradman »

Great. Just fucking wonderful. Didn't like reading headlines yesterday that were saying the invasion order had already been given. His latest move is not a good indication that it's only a bluff.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by ZoWie »

Putin just recognized the eastern Ukraine rebel areas as separate states, and all signs point to some kind of military action. Putin also says that the orders have already been given.

Time for everyone else to put their balls where their mouths are and sanction the shit out of the asshole. This includes going after the wealthy oligarchs who serve as his wallet in the west.
"We must remember that we cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation." --Liz Cheney, Republican, 7/21/22
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