The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

[gounion]

Joe keeps whining about the REAL victims - the businesses. Which shows how much he worships money and doesn't care about human lives.

Now, let's be clear - most businesses don't run on savings - they work with banks or investors. Most don't do shit with their own money. And business schools TELL you to never use your own money.

But I know one that did - the place my old girlfriend's family owns. It's been in business for over 100 years, and their family has owned it since the seventies. It's a downtown place only open for lunch.

Gee, they weathered the downturn. They even kept their staff - turning them into delivery folks. They did a HUGE business for carryout, and delivered to downtown offices that remained open for lunches, often for the whole staff there. But then, they did things like accountants wouldn't want you to do. It was all about never skimping on quality and making the customers part of the family. If a guy like Joe would come in and tell you that you could cut costs here, and put in less of an ingredient there, or use a cheaper ingredient, he'd be shown the door.

And they're stronger for it now.

If a place went out of business, well, they just didn't have a good business plan. Isn't it the survival of the fittest, Joe?

[gounion]

I may not be a medical professional but you don’t have to be a medical professional to tell that deaths per capita in restrictive states were .0011percent lower than non restrictive states. That was based on the raw data as published by the CDC. Now if you desire a difference conclusion - say one that supports your theory, then you cherry pick the numbers by say completely ignoring the initial surges on the North and including the initial surges everywhere else. Not weighting them differently - completely ignoring them.

I ignored nothing. I used the raw data. Simple math. Simple spreadsheets. The numbers say what the numbers say. I get you don’t like it because they don’t support your conclusion.

Bullshit. You saw what you WANTED to see. YOU are the one cherry picking the numbers. ProfX has shown you to be full of shit time and time again on the numbers.

You took the raw data and cooked the books. Something I'm sure you were very good at. Your numbers said whatever the boss wanted them to say, didn't they?

[JoeMemphis]

One of my favorite places to is the Bayside Cafe in Sausalito, right there Kappas Marina. The Chicken Fried Steak is to die for. They never closed. Bayside remained open for carry out. As did many others. Did some businesses close....of course. The California Mask Mandate allowed for carry out, just not eat in. Then keeping the mask on until you started to eat. I did switch over to the digital version of the Chronicle.

As for Joe saying he went to the CDC website, post what you found Joe....oh you do not like doing that.

If I had the ability to post the data I would. However for some reason I do not have that capability on this board. I offered to sent my work to the Professor but at the time he said he was no longer interested. But if you are curious and I afraid, go look for yourself. Prevaccine deaths per capita. Everything you need is out there on the site.

But you still haven’t addressed the points that some of your leaders who were pushing these restriction on their constituents didn’t follow their own mandates. There’s video evidence. They have all kinds of weak ass excuses. You still haven’t addressed why during the latter surges, we didn’t go back to the strict protocols. How did private schools and some rural schools figure out how to get their students back in school when public schools could not. How did all these schools get their student back to in person instruction without masks and yet avoided an explosion of cases and death.

[gounion]

If I had the ability to post the data I would. However for some reason I do not have that capability on this board. I offered to sent my work to the Professor but at the time he said he was no longer interested. But if you are curious and I afraid, go look for yourself. Prevaccine deaths per capita. Everything you need is out there on the site.

But you still haven’t addressed the points that some of your leaders who were pushing these restriction on their constituents didn’t follow their own mandates. There’s video evidence. They have all kinds of weak ass excuses. You still haven’t addressed why during the latter surges, we didn’t go back to the strict protocols. How did private schools and some rural schools figure out how to get their students back in school when public schools could not. How did all these schools get their student back to in person instruction without masks and yet avoided an explosion of cases and death.

Why don't you ask my question about an Ebola outbreak? Gutless.

[JoeMemphis]

Bullshit. You saw what you WANTED to see. YOU are the one cherry picking the numbers. ProfX has shown you to be full of shit time and time again on the numbers.

You took the raw data and cooked the books. Something I'm sure you were very good at. Your numbers said whatever the boss wanted them to say, didn't they?

How did I cherry pick the numbers when I used raw data without exclusion?

[gounion]

How did I cherry pick the numbers when I used raw data without exclusion?

Again, you see what you choose to see. ProfX has been through all of it, and made you look like an idiot.

[JoeMemphis]

Why don't you ask my question about an Ebola outbreak? Gutless.

You asked your question. Why do I need to ask your question.

Not every virus is the same. They may spread the same. Some are more or less contagious. Some are more or less deadly. Covid isn’t as deadly as Ebola. The flu kills people every year. Do you want to shut the economy down every year for the flu season? How many flu deaths are acceptable to you?

[JoeMemphis]

Again, you see what you choose to see. ProfX has been through all of it, and made you look like an idiot.

At the end of the game when you look at the scoreboard, that’s the outcome. You would ignore the first quarter and only look at the last three. That’s cherry picking. Once again, I looked at the raw data. I used the entire dataset without exclusion. I didn’t massage the numbers. I leave that up to the peer reviewed data scientist.

[gounion]

You asked your question. Why do I need to ask your question.

You don't have room to talk. You make misstatements and misspellings all the time, and you've got a fucking college degree.

Not every virus is the same. They may spread the same. Some are more or less contagious. Some are more or less deadly. Covid isn’t as deadly as Ebola. The flu kills people every year. Do you want to shut the economy down every year for the flu season? How many flu deaths are acceptable to you?

One million people died.

Again, if there's an Ebola outbreak, and the virus has mutated, so that you can be an active carrier for weeks before you have symptoms, and it kills everyone that gets it - what do you do?

Go ahead, college boy. Or are you going to run away again?

[gounion]

At the end of the game when you look at the scoreboard, that’s the outcome. You would ignore the first quarter and only look at the last three. That’s cherry picking. Once again, I looked at the raw data. I used the entire dataset without exclusion. I didn’t massage the numbers. I leave that up to the peer reviewed data scientist.

You massaged all kinds of things. I remember your "Florida v. California" bullshit.

Again, a numbers guy coming out with the numbers he wanted to come out with.

[ProfX]

I wasn't interested in your analysis Joe, because you show no competence in analyzing this data.

I have not conducted any personal peer reviewed analysis of COVID data; absolutely true; not my wheelhouse - not what I do. Have I cited other peer reviewed analyses? Yes. Including the CDC's own analyses of their own data, of course. If you're gonna ask me who I trust most to analyze data, it's the agency that collected it.

Now to be clear, and I've said this, there is a limit to what cumulative death totals in states can tell us. After all, there are variables we can't control for, and differences could indicate different times of spread, strains, health care systems, climate, demographics, etc. A lot of this is very rough, after all just comparing "red states" vs. "blue states" can be problematic, as some governors on the "red" side were more stringent in mitigation, and some on the "blue" less. It's why those analyses are imperfect at best.

There's one true way to know if a medical intervention works. You carefully control for other variables, then from time X, you look at community A that did not use the intervention, and community B that did, and compare outcomes after a time period (say 6 months). I reiterate, all these studies show these medical interventions did work. When you control for other variables, which your romp through the CDC's numbers wasn't doing.

Cheers.

[carmenjonze]

Once again, I looked at the raw data.

Link it.

I used the entire dataset without exclusion.

No you didn’t. Stop lying.

[carmenjonze]

You asked your question. Why do I need to ask your question.

Not every virus is the same. They may spread the same. Some are more or less contagious. Some are more or less deadly. Covid isn’t as deadly as Ebola. The flu kills people every year. Do you want to shut the economy down every year for the flu season? How many flu deaths are acceptable to you?

In what alternate galaxy have there been a million flu deaths in this country over the course of two years?

Why are a million COVID or any other preventable deaths fine with you psycho confederate sociopaths.

Rhetorical question, no need to answer.

[ProfX]

Got another cool graph to show you.

Look at what happened to flu cases in the U.S. from 2020 to 2021. They literally flatlined.



Now, students, what do you think was the cause of this decline? Changes in the geomagnetic field? If you said masking and mitigation efforts for COVID-19, you would be correct.

Next question: why on Earth would they be effective against flu but NOT effective against COVID-19?

This will be on the exam.

[JoeMemphis]

You don't have room to talk. You make misstatements and misspellings all the time, and you've got a fucking college degree.

One million people died.

Again, if there's an Ebola outbreak, and the virus has mutated, so that you can be an active carrier for weeks before you have symptoms, and it kills everyone that gets it - what do you do?

Go ahead, college boy. Or are you going to run away again?

We have protocols for Ebola. I believe they involve isolation of infected people. I believe those protocols are a place to start.

Answer my flu question smart guy, the flu kills people every year. Are you prepared to ask everyone to mask up for 4 months and refrain from dining out or traveling. Are you ready to crater the hospitality industry for the flu? Why not? How many flu deaths are acceptable to you?

[JoeMemphis]

Got another cool graph to show you.

Look at what happened to flu cases in the U.S. from 2020 to 2021. They literally flatlined.



Now, students, what do you think was the cause of this decline? Changes in the geomagnetic field? If you said masking and mitigation efforts for COVID-19, you would be correct.

Next question: why on Earth would they be effective against flu but NOT effective against COVID-19?

This will be on the exam.

Nice graph. I don’t know the answer. All I know is that the death rate per capita from Covid from state to state, red versus blue, restrictive versus non restrictive were roughly the same. That might make a cool graph as well.

[ProfX]

Nice graph. I don’t know the answer. All I know is that the death rate per capita from Covid from state to state, red versus blue, restrictive versus non restrictive were roughly the same.

1. They were not, once we examine the cumulative death totals as of April 2022. See Axios graph. Red states fared worse. Fact. (*)
2. Even if they weren't, wouldn't be conclusive proof of your claim.
3. [bold] Socrates said that is the beginning of real knowledge.

A counterargument might be why didn't COVID-19 flatline to the extent that seasonal flu did ... answer, it has a higher R0 and case fatality rate, which also answers the question of why we don't treat them the same.

Got another cool graph.

https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu ... 19-deaths/



Those little blue bumps are deaths from flu, compared to deaths from COVID.

(*) Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States as of May 9, 2022, by state (per cap)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... -by-state/

Top 5 states:
Miss.
Arizona
Oklahoma
Alabama
Tenn.

Bottom 5 states:
Washington State
Utah
Puerto Rico
Vermont
Hawaii

I'll give you Utah as a red state.

[JoeMemphis]

I wasn't interested in your analysis Joe, because you show no competence in analyzing this data.

I have not conducted any personal peer reviewed analysis of COVID data; absolutely true; not my wheelhouse - not what I do. Have I cited other peer reviewed analyses? Yes. Including the CDC's own analyses of their own data, of course. If you're gonna ask me who I trust most to analyze data, it's the agency that collected it.

Now to be clear, and I've said this, there is a limit to what cumulative death totals in states can tell us. After all, there are variables we can't control for, and differences could indicate different times of spread, strains, health care systems, climate, demographics, etc. A lot of this is very rough, after all just comparing "red states" vs. "blue states" can be problematic, as some governors on the "red" side were more stringent in mitigation, and some on the "blue" less. It's why those analyses are imperfect at best.

There's one true way to know if a medical intervention works. You carefully control for other variables, then from time X, you look at community A that did not use the intervention, and community B that did, and compare outcomes after a time period (say 6 months). I reiterate, all these studies show these medical interventions did work. When you control for other variables, which your romp through the CDC's numbers wasn't doing.

Cheers.

You were the one who threw the assertion at me in the first place and told me to refute it. I did. If you aren’t interested in the answer then don’t ask the question in the first place. I was responding to a challenge from you.

Now I don’t really care what you think about my qualifications. Makes no difference to me. The feeling is mutual. When you give me a study that is so obviously biased to support your assertion I tend to doubt your objectivity.

When the vaccine came online we saw case numbers drop. Noticeably. However, all these restrictive measures and masking showed no such correlation. Further as I have pointed out the folks pushing these measures often only followed them when it suited them. Says a lot about how they felt about the data and the policy. And when we had subsequent surges, we didn’t separate people into essential/non essential and close “non essential” businesses. Why. Of these measures saved lives as claimed, why did we not go right back to them. So you base everything on what some study tells you. I tend to look at how things actually work in the field. I’m not seeing a whole lot of consistency.

Cheers

[JoeMemphis]

1. They were not, once we examine the cumulative death totals as of April 2022. See Axios graph. Red states fared worse. Fact. (*)
2. Even if they weren't, wouldn't be conclusive proof of your claim.
3. [bold] Socrates said that is the beginning of real knowledge.

A counterargument might be why didn't COVID-19 flatline to the extent that seasonal flu did ... answer, it has a higher R0 and case fatality rate, which also answers the question of why we don't treat them the same.

Got another cool graph.

https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu ... 19-deaths/



Those little blue bumps are deaths from flu, compared to deaths from COVID.

(*) Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States as of May 9, 2022, by state (per cap)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... -by-state/

Top 5 states:
Miss.
Arizona
Oklahoma
Alabama
Tenn.

I was looking at the numbers pre vaccine. Introduction of the vaccine skews the numbers. If you are trying to isolate whether restrictive measures were effective, you have to look prevaccine. If you look at those numbers you will see little to no difference on the average.

[JoeMemphis]

1. They were not, once we examine the cumulative death totals as of April 2022. See Axios graph. Red states fared worse. Fact. (*)
2. Even if they weren't, wouldn't be conclusive proof of your claim.
3. [bold] Socrates said that is the beginning of real knowledge.

A counterargument might be why didn't COVID-19 flatline to the extent that seasonal flu did ... answer, it has a higher R0 and case fatality rate, which also answers the question of why we don't treat them the same.

Got another cool graph.

https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu ... 19-deaths/



Those little blue bumps are deaths from flu, compared to deaths from COVID.

(*) Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States as of May 9, 2022, by state (per cap)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... -by-state/

Top 5 states:
Miss.
Arizona
Oklahoma
Alabama
Tenn.

Bottom 5 states:
Washington State
Utah
Puerto Rico
Vermont
Hawaii

I'll give you Utah as a red state.

You should send the second graph to GoU. He thinks Covid is Ebola.

[ProfX]

You were the one who threw the assertion at me in the first place and told me to refute it. I did.

Just because you think you did, doesn't mean you did.

When you give me a study that is so obviously biased to support your assertion I tend to doubt your objectivity.

Name one study I've shown you that is "obviously biased" other than that it indicates things you don't want to hear.

Most were on the old board, but I've dropped a few on this one.

However, all these restrictive measures and masking showed no such correlation.

That Axios graph shows otherwise. Otherwise there would be no disparity in the red/blue lines pre 2021.

Secondly, you admit you have no explanation for why these things had an effect on flu cases, but (according to you) no effect on COVID cases.

This tends to indicate you might be this thing called wrong.

[gounion]

We have protocols for Ebola. I believe they involve isolation of infected people. I believe those protocols are a place to start.

Answer my flu question smart guy, the flu kills people every year. Are you prepared to ask everyone to mask up for 4 months and refrain from dining out or traveling. Are you ready to crater the hospitality industry for the flu? Why not? How many flu deaths are acceptable to you?

You gutless weasel, you won't answer the question.

I didn't think so. Run away, little child. Head over to the kiddie table until you can answer a simple question.

[gounion]

You should send the second graph to GoU. He thinks Covid is Ebola.

You lying sack of shit. You really can't deal with anything on an adult level.

You're too fucking gutless to answer my question.

[JoeMemphis]

Just because you think you did, doesn't mean you did.



Name one study I've shown you that is "obviously biased" other than that it indicates things you don't want to hear.

Most were on the old board, but I've dropped a few on this one.



That Axios graph shows otherwise. Otherwise there would be no disparity in the red/blue lines pre 2021.

Secondly, you admit you have no explanation for why these things had an effect on flu cases, but (according to you) no effect on COVID cases.

This tends to indicate you might be this thing called wrong.

Covid isn’t the flu as has been pointed out on this board many times. Ebola isn’t Covid. I used the raw data prevaccine. The numbers are there. They show what they show. It’s simple math.

One would think of red states sucked as bad as you say that would obviously show in the numbers. It didn’t. Your study ignored the initial surges in the north. You said that yourself. So obviously you knew the numbers were skewed otherwise why mention it.

I’m not a flu expert. I take it you are not a flu expert either. What we have are numbers on Covid by state prevaccine and they do not support your assertion. Not in my view. But you are welcome to your own opinion. You have a right to be wrong as well.

[JoeMemphis]

You lying sack of shit. You really can't deal with anything on an adult level.

You're too fucking gutless to answer my question.

Oooh. Look at GoU getting all pissed. And cursing. And you call me the child.

I answered you question. What would I do if it was Ebola. We have protocols for Ebola. We know a fair amount about Ebola. I would start by following those protocols which involve isolation of the infected individual.

But Covid isn’t Ebola is it? We pretty much knew that early on. So how you deal with the one isn’t necessarily how you deal with the other.